Ranking Tom Brady

Football Friday, Volume 6

Tom Brady is widely considered to be the best quarterback in the NFL today.  He has won 3 Super Bowl titles, 2 Super Bowl MVP's, and 2 regular season MVP's.  He, along with Peyton Manning, have defined the last decade in the NFL.  In the last couple of seasons it seems as if Brady has been writing his name into the record book more and more.  In fact I just received this message the other day:

Hey Mark, 
I have a request. I'm always wondering where Tom Brady falls in the all-time list for stats. Is there any way you can put this in your blog or make it part of some aspect of the blog. I like tracking his stats and I feel Brady's breaking records almost every game. So if you could put something like that up there so we can track his progression to the number one spot, I'd appreciate it. (Courtesy of Joe in Hanson, MA)

Ask and you shall receive Joe!  Fortunately the wonderful website pro-football-reference.com was created for stat junkies to research things just like this.  Joe's request got me curious and I started wondering myself. 

Let's see where Brady ranks on the all-time career passing stat lists:

Passing Yards:
1. Brett Favre  71,838 yards
3. Peyton Manning  54,828  (Active leader in yards)
16. Drew Brees  36,676
17. TOM BRADY  36,297
18. Jim Kelly  35,467

So Brady just passed Jim Kelly this season to move into 17th all-time in passing yards.  He has 2 current players immediately in front of him (Brees and Donovan McNabb), but he could hit the 40,000 yard mark by the end of the season with the pace he is on through 3 games which would put him into a group with Kerry Collins, Joe Montana, and Johnny Unitas (#10-12 on the all-time list).

Touchdown Passes:
1. Brett Favre  508 TD Passes
3. Peyton Manning  399 (Active leader)
5. John Elway  300
8. Vinny Testaverde  275
9. TOM BRADY  274
10. Joe Montana  273

Brady just passed his boyhood idol, Montana, on this list last weekend, appropriately enough in the Bay Area.  Testaverde should get passed this Sunday at home.  If Brady stays at a good pace he should hit the 300 TD pass milestone by season's end which would put him in the top 5 all-time among QB's and allow him to either tie or pass John Elway.

Completions:
1. Brett Favre  6,300 completions
3. Peyton Manning  4,682 (Active leader)
13. Donovan McNabb  3,141
T14. TOM BRADY  3,105
T14. Dave Krieg  3,105

There is getting to be a common theme with these lists.  Favre is #1 followed by Marino and then Manning, who is the active leader now with Favre's supposed retirement.  Brady is 268 completions behind Montana, who is ranked tenth.  Brady should leapfrog McNabb at some point because he completes more passes and McNabb may be benched by season's end, but Brees is just ahead of Donovan and he should stay in front of Brady even as he moves up the board.

(Note: I was going to include the all-time rankings for completion percentage here, which Brady ranks tenth in, but I could not allow myself to include a list in which Chad Pennington is #1 all-time.)

Game-Winning Drives:
1. Dan Marino  51
T2. Peyton Manning  46 (Active leader)
T2. John Elway  46
T7. Vinny Testaverde  33
T7. Joe Montana  33
9. TOM BRADY  32
10. Drew Bledsoe  31

This list is interesting because it's not a sure thing that Brady will move up during the season.  Odds are he will have to lead a drive to win the game during the season, but the Patriots have been in control pretty much from start to finish in their 3 wins this season.  One more GW drive will allow him to tie Montana (and Vinny), though catching Marino (and/or likely Manning) will prove difficult, especially if the Patriots remain at their current level.

Comebacks:
1. Dan Marino  36
T2. Peyton Manning  35 (Active leader)
T2. John Elway  35
T10. Dave Krieg  24
T10. Dan Fouts  24
T10. Drew Bledsoe  24
13. TOM BRADY  23
14. Jim Kelly  22

Another list with no guarantee but odds are he will get at least one this year, which would move him into the top 10.  Montana ranks fourth with 31.  This could be a reachable mark for him, granted Manning doesn't put it too far out of reach.

I think those lists give everyone a good idea of where Tom Brady ranks on the career passing lists.  We know he owns the single-season touchdown pass mark with 50 in 2007.  He also tied (with 12 others) for the longest touchdown pass of all-time in their opener with his 99 yard touchdown to Wes Welker.  He was also the first QB in history to follow a 500 yard passing game with a 400 yard passing game.  So aside from the career marks it seems like there are plenty of other crazy marks for Brady to still set.  He will likely keep those at the Elias Sports Bureau busy as his career continues.

Can Clemson Contend?

The Clemson Tigers currently stand at 5-0 (2-0 in the ACC) and have risen to #8 in both polls.  Going into the season I figured Florida State and Virginia Tech gave the league their best chance at a National Championship contender but the Tigers have been a surprise.  They have defeated ranked teams in the previous three weeks (Auburn and Florida State at home, Virginia Tech on the road).  Only LSU has as many wins against ranked opponents (though all of LSU's came away from home).

This week Clemson hosts struggling Boston College.  The Eagles have been mediocre at best on offense and should prove to be no match for the Tigers, especially at home.  This is where Clemson needs to prove themselves though.  In past years they have followed up big wins with disappointing performances against lesser opponents.  After BC they visit Maryland then host North Carolina before a huge showdown with Georgia Tech (the ACC's other undefeated squad).  If Clemson wants to prove themselves as an elite team they need to take care of business the next three weeks.

A Quiet Week

This is probably the quietest week in college football thus far in terms of top 25 showdowns.  There are three on the schedule for Saturday and of those three only one (Texas-Oklahoma) features a pair of undefeated teams.

The Florida-LSU game lost some luster after the Gators were blown out at home by Alabama last weekend and lost starting quarterback John Brantley in the process.  They are now expected to start true freshman Jeff Driskel.  On the road in Death Valley against that defense, led by Tyrann Mathieu, will probably prove to be a rude welcome for Driskel, especially after his second half introduction to the Crimson Tide defense last weekend.

The Red River Rivalry between Texas and Oklahoma in Dallas features a pair of undefeateds but Oklahoma has been much more impressive.  Texas benched their quarterback, Garrett Gilbert (who now plans to transfer), after he struggled to start the season.  They now rely on a pair of young signal callers: sophomore Case McCoy (younger brother of Colt) and freshman David Ash.  The Longhorns' strongest opponent to date is probably a toss up between UCLA and BYU, neither of whom are anywhere near the Sooners' level.  Oklahoma has already proven itself on a big stage, beating Florida State on the road, and should roll tomorrow.

On to the picks...

Predictions (Home teams in CAPS)

After posting winning weeks on both fronts I finally stand over .500 in both the NFL and college football!!!  (Let's hope I didn't jinx things for this week.)

NCAA
Oklahoma (-10.5) over TEXAS (neutral site but Texas is the home team)
Maryland (+15) over GEORGIA TECH
CLEMSON (-21) over Boston College
PENN STATE (-4) over Iowa
VIRGINIA TECH (-7.5) over Miami
NOTRE DAME (-14) over Air Force
Kansas (+32) over OKLAHOMA STATE
LSU (-14) over Florida
Auburn (+10) over ARKANSAS
TENNESSEE (+2) over Georgia


Last Week: 6-4
Season: 24-22-4


NFL
Chiefs (+3) over COLTS
Cardinals (+3) over VIKINGS
BILLS (+3) over Eagles
TEXANS (-6) over Raiders
PANTHERS (+7) over Saints
Bengals (+3) over JAGUARS
STEELERS (-3) over Titans
Seahawks (+10) over GIANTS
NINERS (-3) over BUCS
PATRIOTS (-9) over Jets
Chargers (-4) over BRONCOS
Packers (-6) over FALCONS
Bears (+6) over LIONS

Last Week: 11-5
Season: 33-28-3

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My Top 10 Favorite Patriots Seasons

This season marks the tenth anniversary of the one of the craziest and most improbable Super Bowl runs in NFL history.  In honor of that anniversary I have decided to list my ten favorite Patriots seasons.  This is not a ranking of who I feel are the best Patriots teams of all-time but rather the ones I have enjoyed the most during my life as a Patriots fan.

Without further ado...

10. 2010 (14-2, AFC East Champs, lost in Divisional Round)

Last year's squad was a very likable team.  Going into the season the expectations for the team were not as high as in years past.  There were a lot of rookies and second year players and most people thought they were a year away from contending.

They lost in week 2 to the Jets at the Meadowlands and again to the Browns in week 9.  After that loss in Cleveland the team rattled off 8 straight wins to close the regular season, scoring 30+ points in every win.

Tom Brady threw for 39 touchdowns with only 4 interceptions and was the unanimous choice for MVP.

The playoff loss to the Jets was disappointing but the season was a fun ride as Brady and the young guys clicked much quicker than anyone expected.

Favorite Game: November 21, home, 31-28 W over the Colts.  The Patriots got only their second win against the Colts since the 2004 playoffs and the win was sealed with a late James Sanders interception of Peyton Manning.

9. 1998 (9-7, 4th in AFC East, lost in Wild Card Round)

An exceptionally strong year for the AFC East as a whole.  Four teams from the division made the playoffs that year (Jets, Bills, Dolphins, Pats) as the other two divisions had only their champion with a winning record.

The Patriots found themselves at 5-5 after a November 15 loss in Buffalo.  They had started the year 4-1 and a possible playoff spot was slipping away.  A Monday night home game against the Dolphins became a must-win for the team.  Drew Bledsoe led the team to a thrilling 26-23 win, throwing for 423 yards and a late touchdown pass to Shawn Jefferson to win it.  He did that despite breaking the index finger on his throwing hand on the winning drive.

The next week he played with the broken finger and threw a touchdown pass to Ben Coates to win the game with no time remaining.  That pass came after a controversial pass interference call put the ball on the 1 yard line.  The Bills were so upset with the call that they walked off the field and the Patriots had Adam Vinatieri run for the 2 point conversion unopposed.  Bledsoe played two more games after that (a win in Pittsburgh and a loss at St. Louis) before they had to shut him down for the season.  Scott Zolak clinched the playoff berth with a win at home against San Francisco but they were blown out on the road in Jacksonville in the first round.

Favorite Game: The Buffalo win.  Doug Flutie's return to New England, a last minute win, and Wade Phillips leading his team off the field when there was still a play left added up to a wonderful Thanksgiving weekend.

8. 2008 (11-5, tied for first in AFC East, missed playoffs)

A season that felt like a throwback to the 1990s.  The Patriots became underdogs again after Brady tore his ACL in the first half of the season opener.  Long time back-up (long time as in he hadn't started since high school) Matt Cassel stepped in and became the starting quarterback and helped Josh McDaniels get his first head coaching job.  Cassel threw for almost 3,700 yards on the season to go with 21 touchdown passes.  Unfortunately this was a strong year in the AFC and for the first time in the current playoff system an 11 win team did not qualify for the playoffs.

The team sat at 7-5 heading into December, needing to win out to have any hope at the playoffs.  They did win out, including a 47-7 annihilation of the eventual NFC champion Cardinals at home, but thanks the Brett Favre choking for the Jets against Miami they did not make the playoffs.  December also featured the second of Junior Seau's three "post-graduation" returns to the Patriots.  They signed him the week of the Seattle game and he somehow ended up playing the majority of the game.

Favorite Game: The loss to the Jets on Thursday night at home.  Down 24-6 in the second quarter, and 31-24 in the last 2 minutes the Patriots twice came all the way back to tie, highlighted by a freakish catch by Randy Moss with 1 second left to force overtime.  Of course they ended up losing in overtime after they allowed Dustin Keller to gain 16 yards on a third and 15 to start the possession.  This brought back childhood memories of the team sucking you in and then kicking you square in the nuts.


7. 2006 (12-4, AFC East Champs, lost in AFC Championship Game)

This team was a classic example of maximizing talent and showed why Brady is the greatest of this generation.  He had a receiving corps that featured a past his prime Troy Brown (in his last full season), Reche Caldwell, Doug Gabriel, and Jabar Gaffney, among others.  Gaffney ended up being a pleasant surprise, breaking out in the playoffs and emerging as a dependable receiver in 2007.

Brady struggled in SD but found a way to win

This season also featured the first season of Bill Belichick-Eric Mangini coaching matchups.  They split in the regular season but the Patriots rolled to a 37-16 home playoff win in the Wild Card round.  The next week saw them pull off a huge upset in San Diego that I still question how they actually managed to win (and also featured LT spouting off about what a class act he is) before a collapse of epic proportions in Indianapolis in the AFC Title Game.  Up 21-6 at the half, the Patriots saw Manning and the Colts come storming back in what turned out to be a shootout.  The Colts won 38-34 after a late touchdown.  Most people forget but the turning point of this game was an atrocious offensive pass interference call against Troy Brown when they were heading in to score again before the half.  Not that I'm still bitter or anything...

Favorite Game: The Divisional win over San Diego.  The Chargers dominated the game and Brady was sub par for most of the game but San Diego continued to do dumb things.  The biggest play of the game was Troy Brown forcing a fumble after a Brady interception by Marlon McCree that could have iced the game had he just gone down.  I also loved the Chargers (mainly LT) complaining about the Patriots' celebration after they had been spouting off all week.

6. 2007 (16-0, AFC East Champs, lost in Super Bowl)

The greatest regular season in NFL history will forever be overshadowed by the way it ended, which I still cannot talk about so let's move on.... 


5. 1996 (11-5, AFC East Champs, lost in Super Bowl)


The first really good Patriots team of my childhood.  This season did not start well though.  Coming off of a 6-10 year in 1995, New England opened 1996 with back to back losses to Miami and Buffalo on the road.


They won 11 of their next 14 games after that to win the AFC East and earn a first round bye.  It also allowed them to host a playoff game for the first time since 1978.  They blew out Pittsburgh 28-3 in a game that will be remembered as "The Fog Game".  

The first true Patriots success during my time as a fan

They also hosted the AFC Championship Game against Jacksonville (in a game that featured a delay when the lights went out) after the Jaguars pulled off a monumental upset in Denver the week before.  The Patriots won that game with defense and special teams.  Their first touchdown was set up by Larry Whigham, who tackled the Jaguars punter at his own 4 yard line after a mishandled snap.  Willie Clay had a huge interception in the end zone late in the game when Jacksonville was driving for a tying score and Otis Smith sealed the game with a fumble return for a touchdown.


The Pats were expected to be blown out in the Super Bowl by the Packers but hung tough for most of the game.  They led 14-10 after the first quarter (the highest scoring quarter in Super Bowl history) and trailed only 27-21 after a Curtis Martin touchdown run.  Unfortunately they kicked off to eventual Super Bowl MVP Desmond Howard, who ran back the ensuing kickoff 99 yards to provide the final 35-21 margin.


Favorite Game: Week 17 against the Giants.  The Patriots fell behind 22-0 in the Meadowlands and it looked as if they would not be getting a bye in the playoffs, but the Pats came roaring back and the Giants imploded.  They ended up winning the game 23-22, highlighted by a Dave Meggett punt return for a touchdown and the winning touchdown pass to Ben Coates on a fourth down.  Recently watched this on Youtube.


4. 1994 (10-6, tied for first in AFC East, lost in Wild Card Round)


The year that I fell in love with both the Patriots and the NFL in general.  I have Robert Kraft to thank for that because after taking over as owner of the team people actually wanted to attend games again.  Since they were selling out again I was able to watch the Patriots on TV every week.  I bet there are plenty of people that laugh at teams now getting blacked out locally that have no idea that this was our reality prior to Kraft.  I remember being 8 years old when Bledsoe led his big comeback against Miami in the final game of the 1993 season and needing to wait for in-game updates on whatever game we were being shown locally to know what was happening (the world without Red Zone was a terrible place).

I truly became the sports nut I am today in 1994.  Bledsoe truly emerged as a franchise player (broke on to the scene in week 1 throwing for 421 yards and 4 TD's in a 39-35 shootout loss to Marino in Miami) and quickly became my favorite player.  I began watching football on TV every week, highlighted by the Patriots being on every week, and I also got my first subscription to Sports Illustrated (when it was still relevant) so I was reading about sports when I wasn't watching them.  


The season looked like it was going to be a disappointing one.  The Patriots sat at 3-6 in early November before ripping off 7 straight wins to make the playoffs.  They lost to Cleveland (coached by Belichick) on the road 20-13, but I was hooked.  I remember watching the rest of the playoffs that year and the San Francisco-San Diego Super Bowl was the first one I remember having any interest in watching.  


Favorite Game: The 26-20 overtime comeback over Minnesota.  The Pats were down 20-3 at the halftime and were booed off of the field.  They came out in the second half and handed the game to Bledsoe.  He threw for 426 yards and set the NFL single game records for attempts (70) and completions (45).  He won the game with a 14 yard touchdown pass to fullback Kevin Turner.  That win started the 7 game win streak that got them into the playoffs.


3. 2004 (14-2, AFC East Champions, Won Super Bowl)


Probably the strongest of the Patriots' three championship teams.  Coming in to the season as defending Super Bowl Champions the Patriots' offense got even stronger with the addition of running back Corey Dillon.  Dillon ended up rushing for over 1,600 yards on the season.  

Mr. Moreland: just happy to be there

This season also saw the Patriots set the NFL record for consecutive wins with 21.  That streak came to an end on Halloween in Pittsburgh.  The Patriots rallied though and finished with their second consecutive 14 win season.  They did this despite the fact that they lost both of their starting cornerbacks (Ty Law and Tyrone Poole) to injury.  It got so bad that Troy Brown ended up playing some slot corner and they had to start a guy named Earthwind Moreland.  Eventually Randall Gay and Asante Samuel settled into a nice tandem for the team.


The Patriots won their second consecutive Lombardi Trophy, and third in four years, after defeating the Colts and Steelers in the AFC and then the Eagles in the Super Bowl.  The team will be remembered for Dillon's last elite season and for the Pats' willingness to do anything for the team (Brown playing both ways, Vrabel catching a TD in the Super Bowl, different members of the defense playing fullback in short yardage and goal line situations).


Favorite Game: Tie between the Colts and Steelers playoff wins.  The Patriots' defense was completely written off heading into the Colts game (everyone predicted a shootout) but they stood tall.  The Colts got the ball to start the game and the Pats forced a three and out, setting the tone for the game.  They went on to win 20-3 led by Dillon and Tedy Bruschi.  The next week everyone was ready to crown Pittsburgh champs but the Patriots walked into Heinz Field and took a 24-3 halftime lead en route to a 41-27 win.  A fourth and one stop followed by a 60 yard pass from Brady to Deion Branch quieted the crowd, while an 87 yard interception return for a touchdown by Rodney Harrison served as the virtual knockout blow.


1A. 2001 (11-5, AFC East Champs, Won Super Bowl) 


This team is the one that started the Patriots' run of dominance, but it has to rank as the most unlikely Super Bowl champion in history.  Key contributors on this team included Jermaine Wiggins, Matt Stevens, Marc Edwards, Antowain Smith, Tebucky Jones, David Patten, and J.R. Redmond, among others.  Their best player was arguably their kicker, Adam Vinatieri.  Their starting quarterback was a skinny second year kid named Tom Brady.


Don't get me wrong I am not hating on this team.  In fact everything I just said is what makes the team so great.  They were truly a team and they got contributions from a variety of players.  As has become their staple they found ways to win and didn't beat themselves.  


They fought through 0-2 and 1-3 records to reach 5-5 and then rattled off 6 straight wins to win the division and earn a bye.  Brady was not the focal point, as highlighted by the fact that 2 of their wins came when he threw for 107 and 108 yards.  Smith had a big year, rushing for over 1,100 yards and Troy Brown led the receiving corps with 101 catches and numerous big plays.  

A shocking scene in 2001

They got to host one final game at Foxboro Stadium in the Divisional Round before it was torn down and made the most of it.  "The Snow Bowl" is one that will never be forgotten.  Down 13-3 the Patriots came back to defeat the Raiders 16-13 in overtime featuring a replay review that spawned the term "Tuck Rule" and two ridiculous field goals by Vinatieri.  The next week they went into Heinz Field and beat the heavily favored Steelers 24-17.  That game saw Brown return a punt for a TD and lateral a blocked field goal to Antwan Harris for another touchdown.  Their lone offensive touchdown came from Drew Bledsoe who returned to action after Brady got knocked out of the game in the second quarter.  After that, as everyone knows, they went down to New Orleans and shocked the Rams, and the world, 20-17 on a Vinatieri field goal as time expired.  Those three games tie for "Favorite Game" of that season.


1B. 2003 (14-2, AFC East Champs, Won Super Bowl)


My personal favorite team and possibly the greatest Patriots' defense in franchise history.  The team did not make the playoffs in 2002, failing to defend their 2001 title.  They reloaded in 2003 and went on a remarkable, historic run.  They began the year 2-2 before winning their final 15 games and the Lombardi Trophy.  


The defense was led by free agent signings Rodney Harrison and Ted Washington.  Harrison became a leader in the secondary, a strong one that also featured Ty Law and Tyrone Poole at the corners and rookie Eugene Wilson at the other safety, while Washington anchored the middle of the defense from his nose tackle position.  They held 5 opponents to under 10 points, including 3 shutouts.  They defeated co-MVP quarterbacks in the playoffs and held on for dear life in the Super Bowl.


People began to realize something special was happening in October.  The Pats went down to Miami and won in overtime on a long Brady to Brown touchdown pass.  The Patriots always struggled, and rarely won, in Miami and people began to take notice.  The game that garnered them the most national attention was their win in Indianapolis on Thanksgiving weekend.  They jumped out to a big early lead but the Colts came back.  Up 4 in the final minute the Patriots' defense stopped the Colts' Edgerrin James on the goal line to preserve the win.

Manning Face

This was another team that found ways to win.  They won on a late touchdown in Denver (another house of horrors for them) after taking an intentional safety to aid them in field position.  They won 9-3 over Cleveland at home in a game with no touchdowns.  Backup linebacker Matt Chatham keyed a 17-6 win over the Giants with a fumble return for a touchdown.  Tedy Bruschi scored the only touchdown of a snow game at home against Miami.  This was just a really fun team to follow.


Favorite Game: My favorite Patriots' playoff game of all time was my favorite game from this season.  The Patriots' boasted the best defense in the league that season but were forgotten about in the days leading up to the AFC Championship Game at home against the Colts.  When the game started that changed as they picked off Peyton Manning 4 times (3 by Ty Law) and recovered a fumble.  This was a big time "Manning Face" game as he seemed completely confused by the New England defense at times.

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Mail Call With a Side of Football Friday

Football Friday, Volume 5

A little twist to this week's edition of Football Friday: it will not be entirely about football!  Shocking I know.  I have also decided to incorporate a few of my loyal readers into this entry as part of The SLReport's first mailbag! 

With today's news that Terry Francona will no longer be the manager of the Red Sox let's get to today's first question...

Now that Tito Francona is out as Red Sox manager, who do you think are some viable options and who do you think will ultimately replace him? (Mike in Holbrook, MA)

With this news still being fresh I haven't given a ton of thought to this but will give it my best shot.

If they wanted to go the big name route there is one obvious choice: Joe Torre.  It would be a high profile hire for the club with the added bonus of sticking it to the Yankees.  Torre most recently managed with the Dodgers and has worked for Major League Baseball since departing after last season.  He took the Dodgers to back to back NLCS appearances in 2008 and 2009.  I see this as a longshot though.

Another fairly big name who the Red Sox ownership is a fan of is Bobby Valentine.  He would bring a tough, hard nosed approach to the Boston clubhouse, which would be a contrast to Terry Francona's more laid back demeanor.  Valentine has not managed in MLB since 2002 and currently works for ESPN as an analyst.  He interviewed for the Orioles last season after Dave Trembley was fired and it is well known that he wants to get back into MLB.  If they go the big name route I see this being the best chance.

My gut tells me that Red Sox ownership and management will not go in that direction.  Francona was not high on anyone's list heading into 2004 when he was hired.  Boston's brass will probably hire someone that no one has even mentioned yet and give some statistical analysis from Bill James to back up the hire. 

With the Patriots' upcoming stretch of games against the Jets (twice), Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Giants do you think the lack of a consistent running game will prove their achilles heel or will their passing attack be enough to overcome it? (Brian in Chicago, IL)

The need for a more balanced attack will probably be most needed against the Ryan brothers.  I can see both Rex (Jets) and Rob (Cowboys) trying to re-create what Rex and the Jets did to the Pats in January in the playoffs.  They played a lot of defensive backs and took away a lot of New England's passing attack.  The sacks the Jets got in that game mostly were a result of great coverage instead of heavy blitzing.  

If they both try that strategy again the Patriots will have to be more committed to a balanced attack.  They will have to run the football to get both teams out of those looks.  

The Patriots have proven over the last several years that they can defeat Pittsburgh by throwing the football and I expect that to continue.  Troy Polamalu's strength is playing close to the line of scrimmage but the Patriots do a good job of exploiting him in coverage.  I also still don't buy the Giants as a legitimate contender.  I think the Pats can handle them. 

Which team is more likely to continue their early season success, the Bills or the Lions? (Poopa in Abington, MA)

They represent two of the three surprise teams in the NFL this season (with the Raiders being the other).  The Lions were a trendy pick in the NFC this season but I don't know that anyone saw them starting out 3-0.

I see the Lions being more likely to continue their success though.  First of all their schedule heading into their bye week is relatively soft (at Dallas, home vs Chicago, San Francisco, and Atlanta, and at Denver).  With the way they have been playing and that schedule they should be no worse than 6-2 at their bye.  Buffalo meanwhile visits the Bengals this week before entering into an extremely tough stretch (home against the Eagles, at the Giants, bye, home against the Redskins and Jets, and at Dallas). 

The other factor in the Lions' favor is a stronger defense.  They have possibly the best defensive front in the league, anchored by Ndamukong Suh.  Meanwhile the Bills have won their previous two games despite giving up 66 combined points.  Defense wins in the NFL and the Lions look to be ahead of Buffalo in that department right now.

Were Coach James Franklin’s (Vanderbilt) first 3 wins an anomaly or are they a sign of things to come? Are there examples of worse offenses winning 3 games in the SEC? (Jonathon in Nashville, TN)

Outside of possibly the Ole Miss game I don't think any of Vanderbilt's opening 3 wins were a big shock.  The bad sign for things to come was the South Carolina game.  The Commodores racked up a grand total of 77 yards on offense in their 21-3 loss.  South Carolina was struggling defensively prior to last weekend and are not considered one of the stronger defensive teams in the SEC.  

All of this could lead to some struggles as the season continues.  Vandy has a bye this weekend before heading to Tuscaloosa next weekend.  If Coach Franklin's offense plays like they did against USC then they may only gain 40 yards against the Tide.  

In their favor though is the fact that they only have to face two of the SEC's elite defenses (Alabama and Florida).  They should beat Army and Kentucky (who makes Vanderbilt look like Oregon offensively).  I would also tend to predict them to beat Wake Forest.  Those 3 games right there would make them bowl eligible.  An upset over Georgia, Arkansas, or Tennessee could still see Vandy winning 7 games.  I said before the season that I saw them as a year away and still stand by that but a bowl is definitely not out of the question.  Get excited Nashville!

John Cena vs The Rock at next year’s WrestleMania: Who do they book as the heel, and who should walk out with the win? Should it be clean? Personally, I think Cena goes over clean, they shake hands to end credits, and then the smarks riot.  If I had it my way, The Rock gets a controversial win then Cena beats him at Summerslam 2012 as The Rock's curtain call. (Chuck in Halifax, MA)

As great as the CM Punk era has been over the last few months next year's WrestleMania main event is still looming over everything in the wrestling world.  As we get closer to the event the internet will be alive with debate over how to book this match.  I have already heard rumors that Vince McMahon is trying to get Dwayne to stick around for several matches next year, which would allow for at least one re-match with Cena.  If his schedule allows it I see this happening because there would be a lot of money in it for both Vince and The Rock.

November's Survivor Series could give people a strong indication of how this feud will play out.  Cena and The Rock are supposed to be teaming up at the event and one would have to expect one to turn on the other.  I see Cena playing the heel role in all of this.  Survivor Series is being held at MSG this year and I expect the crowd to be heavily in The Rock's corner, much like it will be in Miami for Mania.  This would provide the perfect chance for the WWE to finally turn Cena heel.  If he is going to be heavily booed regardless then they might as well capitalize on it.  

I see a controversial Cena win to get him more heat at WrestleMania followed by The Rock winning a re-match.  If they turn it into a trilogy I see Cena ultimately prevailing since he is the one sticking around.

On to the picks...

Predictions (Home teams in CAPS)

NCAA

Northwestern (+10) over ILLINOIS

INDIANA (+15.5) over Penn State

ARKANSAS (+3) over Texas A&M
Mississippi State (+7) over GEORGIA

BOSTON COLLEGE (-1) over Wake Forest

Nevada (+27.5) over BOISE STATE

Michigan State (+3.5) over OHIO STATE

VIRGINIA TECH (-7) over Clemson

Alabama (4.5) over FLORIDA

Nebraska (+10) over WISCONSIN

Last Week: 2-7-1

Season: 18-18-4

NFL

Lions (+1) over COWBOYS

Saints (-7.5) over JAGUARS

EAGLES (-9) over Niners

RAMS (+2) over Redskins

Titans (+1) over BROWNS

Bills (-3) over BENGALS

CHIEFS (+2) over Vikings

Panthers (+7) over BEARS

Steelers (+4) over TEXANS

SEAHAWKS (+5.5) over Falcons

Giants (-1) over CARDINALS

CHARGERS (-7) over Dolphins

Broncos (+13) over PACKERS

Patriots (-4.5) over RAIDERS

RAVENS (-4) over Jets

Colts (+10.5) over BUCS

Last Week: 9-7
Season: 22-23-3

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It's LSU, Alabama, Then the Rest in the SEC

College football's first month is now almost complete.  It will be October the next time the majority of schools take the field.  As usual the SEC has dominated most of the on-field headlines.  Depending on the rankings the league boasts two of the top three teams in the country, (possibly the top two when the new rankings come out later today) in LSU and Alabama.

The next month should be extremely interesting as we build towards a potential super showdown in Tuscaloosa on November 5 between Alabama and LSU.  October will be filled with a number of big games with both SEC and BCS ramifications.

We all know LSU and Bama are legit but can any other teams step up and show they belong in the upper echelon?

Arkansas had an opportunity yesterday against the Tide but were completely overwhelmed by Alabama's big plays.  Florida has gotten off to a 4-0 start (2-0 in the SEC) and could prove to be a worthy contender in the East, but back to back games against Alabama and LSU the next two weeks should show us where they stand in the SEC overall.

As we start to look ahead to an exciting month let's see how the SEC stacks up after September.

12. Kentucky (2-2, 0-2 SEC): The month of September ended with the Wildcats extending their losing streak to Florida to 25 games.  They also played in what Clay Travis deemed to be the "worst football game of all-time."  They have scored 68 points in 4 games so far (17 PPG).  Their high water mark for points scored this season is 27.  That came against Central Michigan, who is 1-3 with their lone win coming against South Carolina......State.  They have also accomplished all of this without playing a true road game.  That changes next Saturday when they head to Death Valley to face off with (and get steam rolled by) LSU.

11. Ole Miss (1-3, 0-2): The Rebels slide ahead of Kentucky by exactly a touchdown because they have only managed to score 7 more points (75) than the Wildcats.  Their season thus far can be epitomized by their opening day loss to BYU.  They managed only 1 touchdown in the game but still led 13-0 early in the fourth quarter.  After seeing the lead cut to 13-7 the Rebels allowed a strip sack to be recovered in the end zone for a touchdown and lost the game 14-13.  They have been outscored 57-20 in their opening 2 SEC games, losses to Vanderbilt and Georgia.  A road game at Fresno State and a bye week serve as the prelude to back to back home games against Alabama and Arkansas.

10. Mississippi State (1-3, 0-2): Dan Mullen has talked about not wanting to leave Starkville for jobs that are perceived to be better and higher profile.  Well he might want to start worrying about keeping his job at MSU.  He has shown no ability to beat the other teams in the SEC West, save for Ole Miss, and at some point these close losses have to turn into victories or else he will be gone.  The Tigers lost by inches to Auburn and followed that up with a hard fought performance at home against LSU.  Unfortunately their 2 wins came over a Memphis team that makes Kentucky's offense look like Oregon's and in overtime over Lousiana Tech.  Mark Richt may still lose his job in Athens but at least he knows there is one less candidate to replace him.

9. Georgia (2-2, 1-1): The aforementioned Richt and his squad will get a shot at Mullen and Co. in Athens next Saturday.  Richt is still positioned firmly on the hot seat right now but his remaining schedule could help him out.  He doesn't play any of the big guns in the West this year and every remaining game is winnable.  He may have to win out though.  The Dawgs have shown that they will fight for their coach.  They went down to the wire against South Carolina after the opening loss to Boise State and have taken care of business against Coastal Carolina and Ole Miss.  They cannot afford to do worse than 2-1 over their next 3 games (MSU, at Tennessee, at Vanderbilt) heading into their annual matchup in Jacksonville with the Gators if they want to keep Richt in Athens.

8. Tennessee (2-1, 0-1): Hopes were high in Knoxville heading into the Florida game last weekend.  Tyler Bray, Justin Hunter, and Da'Rick Rogers had been lighting up the world in the first two weeks of the season and thought their time had arrived to once again contend, at least with USC in the East.  Suddenly Hunter was down with a knee injury after a first down catch and Tennessee couldn't recover.  The Vols have had a week to stew over the loss to the Gators in the Swamp and will get Buffalo next Saturday before returning to their SEC schedule.  The Georgia game will be huge because it precedes a three game stretch that sees them host LSU, travel to Alabama, and host South Carolina.  A loss to the Dawgs could have the Vols looking at a 3-5 record come the end of October with their bowl chances in serious jeopardy.

7. Arkansas (3-1, 0-1): Another chance to announce themselves on the national scene and another disappointment for the Razorbacks.  Down 10-7 and playing well Arkansas saw it all unravel with a pick 6 late in the second quarter and a punt return touchdown early in the third. Ballgame.  Arkansas checked out at that point, as was evidenced when they fell asleep and allowed Trent Richardson to take a screen pass 61 yards to the house.  They open October against a Texas A&M squad that will be trying to bounce back from another heartbreaking loss to Oklahoma State.  The schedule softens after that and it isn't conceivable to think that they could run the table heading into their regular season finale with LSU but they effectively lost any shot at the West this year because I can't see Alabama losing twice between now and the end of the season.

6. Vanderbilt (3-1, 1-1): I am not going to lie.  The main reason I put Vandy ahead of Arkansas stems from spite over Arkansas' stinker in Tuscaloosa.  Vandy suffered their first loss of the season yesterday at South Carolina.  They managed a whopping 77 yards of total offense on the afternoon.  After a bye week next week they have to travel to Tuscaloosa where double digits in total yards could be a possibility again.  A stretch of Georgia, Army, and Arkansas at home could still see the Commodores at 5-3 by October's end.  That would make a bowl bid very likely, 4-4 would require wins over Kentucky and Wake Forest in November.  Even with today's performance most people have to be satisfied with James Franklin's first season to date.

5. Auburn (3-1, 1-0): The winning streak ended last week and a new one, possibly a short lived new one, began yesterday with a 30-14 victory over Florida Atlantic.  Now the Tigers face 5 games in the next 5 Saturdays before getting a bye week to begin November.  They will need the rest.  The next four games will see Auburn travel to South Carolina and Arkansas, host Florida, and travel to LSU.  They close the month with a home game against Ole Miss.  A 1-4 month is very much in play.  The Florida game could be their best chance to avoid that fate.  The Gators will be coming off back to back games against Alabama and LSU and it will be their second straight road game.  The fact that they have now allowed fewer than 34 points in their 3 games outside of the FAU win does not bode well for Gene Chizik's team.

4. Florida (4-0, 2-0): The Gators were expected to be no worse than 3-1 after September so the record should not be a surprise.  They took care of business against Kentucky yesterday and now can focus on the Crimson Tide.  Florida's defense has looked elite in the first month and the offense has been efficient for the most part.  Will Muschamp and the Gators will find out quickly if they are truly a championship-level football team.  After Alabama they travel to Baton Rouge and Auburn before a bye week and then their matchup in Jacksonville with Georgia.  The defense is currently 5th in the nation in points allowed.  If they are still in the top 10 heading into November then we could be looking at a true contender.

3. South Carolina (4-0, 2-0): The Gamecocks are the best of the rest.  This ranking is based more on their talent than on their performance so far this season.  They have scored 146 points in the season's first month but have allowed 103.  Marcus Lattimore has been the key cog with 534 yards and 7 touchdowns but he is also averaging over 20 carries per game in an extremely physical conference.  Lattimore cannot be expected to keep up that pace, and Stephen Garcia and Alshon Jeffery need to pick up their production to help ease the pressure on their star tailback.  South Carolina is also fortunate to have the easiest October slate out of all the contenders.  Their slate of Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Tennessee make 8-0 through 2 months a very real possibility.  Avoiding LSU and Alabama in the regular season should help them put the pressure on Florida to keep pace in the East.

2. Alabama (4-0, 1-0): The second best September in the country would normally afford a team the top spot in their conference, but unfortunately in the SEC that is not the case.  Alabama entered the season with questions at the quarterback spot but seemed to have found the answer in A.J. McCarron.  They answered the bell on the road at Penn State two weeks ago and answered their first SEC challenge by running Arkansas out of Bryant Denny Stadium yesterday.  The defense is second in the county in points against and Trent Richardson and Marquis Maze have provided big plays on offense and in special teams.  If they survive the Swamp next weekend the Tide will be 8-0 heading into their November 5 home game with LSU.

1. LSU (4-0, 1-0): The best September in the country belongs to the Bayou Bengals.  Les Miles' squad defeated three ranked teams away from Tiger Stadium.  According to Clay Travis the rest of the top 25 combined for 5 wins against ranked teams away from home.  Based on performance LSU has to be the #1 team in the country.  Their toughest October matchup will be Florida, who they get at home and they only have to travel once, to Tennessee.  This team seems to have The Look of a championship team.  The ease with which they took control of that game after West Virginia cut the lead to 6 last night was frightening.  The defense is fast, physical, and nasty, as is their running game.  Jarrett Lee has proven that he can lead this team in hostile environments, which should help since they will be traveling to Tuscaloosa on November 5 to possibly decide one half of the BCS Championship Game.

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Happy Mo Lewis Day

Football Friday, Volume 4

On this day ten years ago the New England Patriots franchise was changed forever.

The moment that changed the Patriots forever

With 5:01 remaining in an eventual 10-3 loss to the New York Jets their franchise quarterback Drew Bledsoe was leveled by Jets linebacker Mo Lewis as he attempted to scramble out of bounds.  It was a monster hit and proved once again how tough Bledsoe was.  He returned to the game for the Patriots' next offensive series before being replaced by Tom Brady on the final possession of the game.  It was later revealed that Bledsoe suffered a sheared blood vessel in his chest.

Bledsoe had been the face of the franchise since his rookie season of 1993.  He, Bill Parcells, and Robert Kraft helped to preserve professional football in New England after James Orthwein threatened to move the team to St. Louis.  It may be hard to remember now but Gillette Stadium could have been called "The House That Bledsoe Built."  Robert Kraft so valued his star quarterback that he signed Bledsoe to a record (for the time) 10 year 103 million dollar contract.  

The Lewis hit complicated matters for Bledsoe and the team.

Bledsoe still believed that he was the franchise, and had every right to believe that at the time, but people on the football side of the business, including Bill Belichick, already had doubts as to his long term future as the team's starter.  There was no questioning Bledsoe's toughness and his ability to get the ball downfield, but his decision making was being questioned more and more.  Tom Brady was already very much on their radar.  Damon Huard had been brought in to be the backup and Brady had already beaten him out.  It was also believed that Brady had a stronger preseason in 2001 than Bledsoe.

Now, with the help of Mo Lewis, Brady was being thrust into the starting role.  The rest as they say is history.  Brady got the job and never gave it back.  Bledsoe returned from his injury and ,despite his displeasure with the situation, took the high road publicly and remained loyal to the franchise he had helped resurrect. 

Everyone fully expected Bledsoe to stand on the sideline for the remainder of the season and then negotiate a trade out of New England.  The wonderful thing about sports is that they do not always follow the script.  Bledsoe eventually got his trade after the season but not without receiving one last opportunity to save the Patriots.  Brady was knocked out in the second quarter of the AFC Championship game in Pittsburgh and Bledsoe jogged in from the sideline.  He bounced back from a hit by Chad Scott that was eerily similar to the Mo Lewis play in Foxboro to throw a touchdown pass to David Patten before halftime.  Bledsoe was unspectacular in the game but did enough to punch the Patriots' ticket to New Orleans.

A champion, but not the way he planned

Brady regained his starting role in Super Bowl XXXVI against St. Louis and Drew Bledsoe saw his team win their first Super Bowl championship, one he dreamed of bringing back to New England but under much different circumstances.  Bledsoe did not return home with the team and did not attend the victory celebration.  He was traded to Buffalo in the offseason and once again proved that he was a class act by taking out full page ads in the Boston newspapers thanking the fans for their support.

Today the New England Patriots are considered one of the model franchises in the NFL.  They have won three Super Bowl Championships in the last decade and play in a state of the art facility.  Tom Brady, as well as Bill Belichick, is the face of the franchise and receives, rightfully so, much of the credit for where the Patriots are today.

But it is appropriate that Drew Bledsoe was enshrined in the Patriots Hall of Fame last weekend.  This season marks the tenth anniversary of his final season in Foxboro.  Brady and Belichick deserve all of the credit that they have received for their contributions to the franchise, but it should be remembed that if not for Drew Bledsoe there might not be a Gillette Stadium or Patriots Place.  He left New England the way he always dreamed of leaving: as a champion.  It just didn't happen the way he planned.  Yet he still found a way to remind New Englanders of his toughness and class and his ability to deliver in the clutch.

Drew Bledsoe helped make the franchise what it is today and he deserves all of the recognition he has received.

But let's not forget to also thank Mo Lewis...

Yet Another Showdown Saturday

College football fans will be treated to a number of big games yet again tomorrow.  There are four matchups featuring top 25 teams facing off.  #2 LSU faces yet another tough game away from Baton Rouge when they head to Morgantown for a primetime date with #16 West Virginia.  I have already argued that if LSU wins this game there should be no argument against them being ranked #1.  They will boast 3 victories over ranked teams, with none of those wins coming in Tiger Stadium.  They will face a raucous road environment for the second straight week though as Morgantown should be fired up for a top-5 opponent and College Gameday's first visit.

Bama will have their hands full Saturday

The schedule makers have helped Nick Saban out this week.  He may have been nervous about his team looking ahead to next Saturday night's showdown in The Swamp with Florida but that is not an option for the Crimson Tide.  #3 Alabama hosts #14 Arkansas in a key SEC West matchup.  The Razorbacks, led by quarterback Tyler Wilson, have been pegged an SEC sleeper by many pundits and look to make a statement in Tuscaloosa.  The Tide's pass defense has yet to be challenged this season but we will have a much better idea of how good they are after tomorrow.

The Big 12 also has a key conference matchup on tomorrow's slate.  #7 Oklahoma State will pay a visit to College Station to face off with the #8 Aggies of Texas A&M.  This could be the Cowboys' last visit to Kyle Field with A&M's impending departure for the SEC and they hope to ruin the Aggies' championship aspirations.  A&M blew a 21-7 halftime lead in Stillwater last season and eventually lost 38-35.  The winner of this game will most likely be Oklahoma's top competition for the Big 12 title and could find themselves in the national championship discussion.

Tomorrow's key ACC Atlantic Division tussle features teams on opposite ends of the emotional spectrum.  #11 Florida State looks to bounce back from their home loss last Saturday night to #1 Oklahoma, while #21 Clemson looks to continue the momentum they gained last week by ending Auburn's win streak in Death Valley.  The Seminoles may be without starting quarterback E.J. Manuel, who was knocked out of the Oklahoma game.  They also are riding a four game losing streak in Death Valley.  A win for Clemson would give them their first 4-0 start since 2007 and make them the favorites to win the Atlantic.

Predictions (Home teams in CAPS)

NCAA
MICHIGAN (-10.5) over San Diego State
North Carolina (+7) over GEORGIA TECH
Notre Dame (-7.5) over PITT
OLE MISS (+10) over Georgia
MARYLAND (-9) over Temple
Colorado (+17) over OHIO STATE
Arkansas (+11) over ALABAMA
Florida State (+3) over CLEMSON
TEXAS A&M (-4) over Oklahoma State
Louisiana State (-6.5) over WEST VIRGINIA

Last Week: 5-5
Season: 16-11-3

NFL
Niners (+3) over BENGALS
Patriots (-9) over BILLS
SAINTS (-4) over Texans
Giants (+8) over EAGLES
Dolphins (+3) over BROWNS
Broncos (+6.5) over TITANS
Lions (-4) over VIKINGS
PANTHERS (-4) over Jaguars
RAIDERS (+3.5) over Jets
Ravens (-4) over RAMS
Falcons (+1) over BUCS
Cardinals (-3.5) over SEAHAWKS
CHARGERS (-15) over Chiefs
BEARS (+4) over Packers
Steelers (-11) over COLTS
Redskins (+5) over COWBOYS


Last Week: 9-6-1
Season: 13-16-3


Finally I'd like to give a shoutout to two of my players and now loyal blog followers Kevin Grey and Timmy Burke, keep reading, spread the word, and hopefully we can play tonight!


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Gators Looking Ahead to Tough October

The Will Muschamp Era has gotten off to a very successful start so far in Gainesville.  The Gators sport a 3-0 record heading into this weekend's game at Kentucky (Saturday 7 PM).  Now the Gators will say all of the right things like that they are taking the Wildcats seriously, and maybe they are, but the truth is that they should handle their business and head into October 4-0.

And that is when it gets interesting for the Gators.

Florida is facing a murderer's row in October.  It begins next Saturday night with a home date against the Alabama Crimson Tide.  The next two Saturdays will be road tests, beginning with a trip to Death Valley to face LSU followed by a visit to Jordan Hare Stadium to face the defending National Champion Auburn Tigers.  After a bye week the Gators will head to Jacksonville for their annual tilt with the Georgia Bulldogs.

Now nothing could make that schedule easier but Florida does catch some breaks.  Both Alabama and Auburn have to face Arkansas the week before playing the Gators, and they also get a bye week before heading to Jacksonville.

So as the Gators head into their season defining stretch let's take a look at what's been good and bad for Florida in the first month of the season:

Rainey broke open last week's game

GOOD: Chris Rainey has been more than good for the Gators in the first three weeks of the season.  He is averaging 8.8 yards per touch so far this season.  He is averaging 6.4 yards per carry on 48 rushes and 19.5 yards per catch on 11 receptions.  He showed his explosiveness last week in the Tennessee game turning a 3 yard pass into an 83 yard touchdown, speeding through the Volunteer secondary.  He also added a blocked punt in that game.  Rainey has been eager to atone for last season, which saw him get suspended from the team, and he has proven to be one of the key weapons in the Gators' offense.

BAD: The Gators have struggled to complete red zone trips with touchdowns thus far this season.  It was a point of emphasis for the team after they suffered similar struggles last season.  Florida has visited the red zone 16 times this season and has come away with points on 15 of those occasions, but they have only scored touchdowns 9 times.  They only scored touchdowns twice out of four red zone trips against Tennessee last week.  It is an issue that needs to be resolved because Alabama and LSU boast elite defenses and points will be at a premium in those games.  The Gators cannot afford to leave points on the field against those teams.

BAD: Penalties have been another problem for Florida so far this season.  In only 3 games the Gators have amassed 34 penalties for 270 yards.  Against Tennessee they committed 16 penalties for a whopping 150 yards, including 9 pass interference calls.  They need to be more disciplined because they will not be able to recover from frequent penalties against the tougher competition they will be facing throughout October.

GOOD: The defense has proven to be a strength under Muschamp.  The unit is only allowing 8.7 points per game, a number that could improve this weekend against an offensively challenged Kentucky squad.  Their strength has been been stopping the run.  Florida's opponents are averaging only 1.2 yards per carry and 30.4 yards per game rushing this season.  They are also holding opponents to only 20% on third down conversions and 17% on fourth down conversions.  They have only allowed opponents 3 touchdowns in 7 red zone visits.  One of the only areas in which they have struggled is rushing the passer.  They only have 5 sacks in 3 games thus far this season.  The Alabama and LSU games could turn into strength vs strength matchups because both teams want to rush the football and Florida has prided itself in that area.

A visionary

(Thanks to Stewie Griffin for the compliment sandwich model.)

The Gators are entering the pivotal stretch of Will Muschamp's inaugural season in Gainesville.  Expectations may not have been what they usually are but Florida has proven to have an elite defense through three weeks.  October will decide if the defense, and the rest of the team, are championship ready.

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Jarrett Lee Stands Tall in Starkville

Football Friday, Volume 3

(Note: This week's entry will feature my NFL picks at the end but no comments.  I have suspended myself for a week from commenting on the NFL.  My picks record for last week, as well as an atrocious fantasy football performance in multiple leagues, has caused me to rescind my right to discuss the NFL, at least for a week.)

LSU had answered a lot of questions even before their game against Mississippi State last night.  Their defense has shown that it can stop a high powered attack, while their running game has proven more than capable at wearing down defenses in the second half of games.  There was only one major question remaining.

Can Jarrett Lee step up and deliver on the road in an hostile environment?

MSU needed more cowbell last night

Lee passed his first test in Starkville last night with flying colors.  He completed 21 of 27 passes for 213 yards and a beautiful touchdown pass to Rueben Randle to put the game away.  His one miscue was an interception late in the game when LSU was already up by 10.  At that point the game was not really in doubt because LSU's defense had completely demoralized the MSU offense.

Lee walked into a raucous, cowbell-filled environment and did not wilt under pressure.  LSU still kept things fairly conservative, but he did show an ability to get the ball down the field on several occasions.  It was a very positive development for the Tigers passing game because next week Russell Shepard returns from his suspension.  Lee has proven to be more than adequate behind center and it will be interesting to see if LSU begins to open things up a bit more.

All Eyes on the Sunshine State

The eyes of the college football world will be focused on the state of Florida tomorrow.  Miami hosts Ohio State in what Orlando Sentinel columnist Mike Bianchi has dubbed "The Battle for the Impermissible Benefits Trophy."  I think that has a better ring to it than my name of Controversy Bowl II.  Elsewhere in Florida the Gators will battle the Tennessee Volunteers in the SEC opener for both schools.  In the main event, in primetime, the #1 ranked Oklahoma Sooners travel to Tallahassee for a date with the #5 Florida State Seminoles. 

This man wants to be relevant nationally again

The biggest storyline for this game has been Florida State's search for a game to show the country that they are back.  Oklahoma ended the Seminole dynasty of the 1990s and early 2000s when they defeated FSU for the 2000 BCS title in the Orange Bowl 13-2.  Florida State fell into a pattern of mediocrity (especially by their standards) during the past decade, but believe they are once again title contenders under coach Jimbo Fisher.  They are also eager to erase the memories of last year's game with the Sooners in Norman.  The Seminoles were completely outclassed, the game was over at halftime, and were run out of the state of Oklahoma 47-17.

I think Landry Jones is the biggest storyline of this matchup though.  The Sooners quarterback has thrown for over 8,000 yards and has 65 touchdown passes in his career but has struggled on the road.  In 9 true road games Jones has 17 TD passes but 15 interceptions to go along with them.  That is more than half of his career total of 26.  In the last 2 seasons the Sooners have lost 5 true road games.  Jones and his teammates have a big opportunity to exorcise some of these road demons and stay on track for a January trip to New Orleans.

The matchup in Gainesville should be interesting as two traditional powers try to prove that they once again belong in the SEC title discussion.  The Gators have looked good out of the gate under new head coach Will Muschamp.  They have outscored Florida Atlantic and UAB 80-3.  John Brantley has been unspectacular but efficient in completing 67% of his passes for 212 yards per game.  The defense looks like it could be an elite unit in the SEC.

The defense will have to be elite Saturday to slow down the Volunteers.  Tyler Bray appears to be the best quarterback in the league, and a win in Gainesville would cement that status.  Bray has completed nearly 79% of his passes for 698 yards and an FBS-best 7 touchdown passes.  Bray, along with receivers Justin Hunter and Da'Rick Rogers, will look to put the Gator secondary in a lot of stress.

History will be on the Gators side though.  Florida has won the last 6 meetings, including a 31-17 win in Knoxville last year that swung in Florida's favor after a third quarter fake punt.  The teams appear to be pretty evenly matched this year and Derek Dooley hopes to get what would be the signature win of his tenure to date.

Cardiac Cats

Is this where Auburn's luck finally runs out?

The defending national champion Auburn Tigers currently boast the longest win streak in the nation at 17 games.  The streak, which has featured a number of down to the wire affairs, began appropriately with an overtime victory over Northwestern in the 2010 Outback Bowl.  They beat Alabama on the road by a point last season after a huge comeback and defeated Oregon for the BCSACC this season and a win over the defending champs would be a big statement. 

Quick Hits

There are some other big games around the country this week:

#18 West Virginia has to avoid looking ahead to next week's home date with LSU when they travel to College Park to face the Maryland Terps.  Maryland is supposedly wearing the uniforms that nearly blew up Twitter when they were unveiled against Miami on Labor Day.  Maryland used the energy to jump on the Hurricanes early and West Virginia will have to weather the early storm.

#11 Nebraska hosts Washington in the schools' third meeting in the last 12 months.  Nebraska handled the Huskies last season in Seattle, scoring 56 points, but were held to 7 in losing to Washington in the Holiday Bowl.  Nebraska visits Wisconsin in two weeks in its inaugural Big Ten game and doesn't want to slip up.  I expect Taylor Martinez to put on a show.

Nothing like a bitter rivalry game in September!  With Utah's move to the Pac-12 and BYU's move to independence the traditional November matchup will now be played this weekend.  Both teams are looking to bounce back from close losses as Utah lost its' Pac-12 opener to USC 23-14 and BYU fell to Texas 17-16.

Predictions (Home Teams in CAPS):
West Virginia (+1) over MARYLAND
CLEMSON (-3) over Auburn
Washington (+17) over NEBRASKA
BRIGHAM YOUNG (-4) over UTAH
MIAMI (-3) over Ohio State
NOTRE DAME (-4.5) over Michigan State
Tennessee (+9) over FLORIDA
KENTUCKY (-6) over Louisville
Arizona State (+2) over ILLINOIS
FLORIDA STATE (+3.5) over Oklahoma


Last Week: 6-2-2
Season: 11-6-3


NFL Predictions
SAINTS (-7) over Bears
LIONS (-8.5) over Chiefs
Jaguars (+9) over JETS
BILLS (-3.5) over Raiders
Cardinals (+4) over REDSKINS
Ravens (-6.5) over TITANS
Seahawks (+14.5) over STEELERS
PANTHERS (+10) over Packers
Bucs (+3) over VIKINGS
COLTS (+3) over Browns
Cowboys (-3) over NINERS
Texans (-3) over DOLPHINS
PATRIOTS (-7) over Chargers
BRONCOS (-3.5) over Bengals
FALCONS (+3) over Eagles
GIANTS (-6) over Rams


Last Week: 4-10-2
Season: 4-10-2

Bonus Pick:
Floyd "Money" Mayweather over Victor Ortiz (unanimous decision)


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