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Friday, October 7, 2011

Ranking Tom Brady

Football Friday, Volume 6

Tom Brady is widely considered to be the best quarterback in the NFL today.  He has won 3 Super Bowl titles, 2 Super Bowl MVP's, and 2 regular season MVP'sHe, along with Peyton Manning, have defined the last decade in the NFL.  In the last couple of seasons it seems as if Brady has been writing his name into the record book more and more.  In fact I just received this message the other day:

Hey Mark, 
I have a request. I'm always wondering where Tom Brady falls in the all-time list for stats. Is there any way you can put this in your blog or make it part of some aspect of the blog. I like tracking his stats and I feel Brady's breaking records almost every game. So if you could put something like that up there so we can track his progression to the number one spot, I'd appreciate it. (Courtesy of Joe in Hanson, MA)

Ask and you shall receive Joe!  Fortunately the wonderful website pro-football-reference.com was created for stat junkies to research things just like this.  Joe's request got me curious and I started wondering myself. 

Let's see where Brady ranks on the all-time career passing stat lists:

Passing Yards:
1. Brett Favre  71,838 yards
3. Peyton Manning  54,828  (Active leader in yards)
16. Drew Brees  36,676
17. TOM BRADY  36,297
18. Jim Kelly  35,467

So Brady just passed Jim Kelly this season to move into 17th all-time in passing yards.  He has 2 current players immediately in front of him (Brees and Donovan McNabb), but he could hit the 40,000 yard mark by the end of the season with the pace he is on through 3 games which would put him into a group with Kerry Collins, Joe Montana, and Johnny Unitas (#10-12 on the all-time list).

Touchdown Passes:
1. Brett Favre  508 TD Passes
3. Peyton Manning  399 (Active leader)
5. John Elway  300
8. Vinny Testaverde  275
9. TOM BRADY  274
10. Joe Montana  273

Brady just passed his boyhood idol, Montana, on this list last weekend, appropriately enough in the Bay Area.  Testaverde should get passed this Sunday at home.  If Brady stays at a good pace he should hit the 300 TD pass milestone by season's end which would put him in the top 5 all-time among QB's and allow him to either tie or pass John Elway.

Completions:
1. Brett Favre  6,300 completions
3. Peyton Manning  4,682 (Active leader)
13. Donovan McNabb  3,141
T14. TOM BRADY  3,105
T14. Dave Krieg  3,105

There is getting to be a common theme with these lists.  Favre is #1 followed by Marino and then Manning, who is the active leader now with Favre's supposed retirement.  Brady is 268 completions behind Montana, who is ranked tenth.  Brady should leapfrog McNabb at some point because he completes more passes and McNabb may be benched by season's end, but Brees is just ahead of Donovan and he should stay in front of Brady even as he moves up the board.

(Note: I was going to include the all-time rankings for completion percentage here, which Brady ranks tenth in, but I could not allow myself to include a list in which Chad Pennington is #1 all-time.)

Game-Winning Drives:
1. Dan Marino  51
T2. Peyton Manning  46 (Active leader)
T2. John Elway  46
T7. Vinny Testaverde  33
T7. Joe Montana  33
9. TOM BRADY  32
10. Drew Bledsoe  31

This list is interesting because it's not a sure thing that Brady will move up during the season.  Odds are he will have to lead a drive to win the game during the season, but the Patriots have been in control pretty much from start to finish in their 3 wins this season.  One more GW drive will allow him to tie Montana (and Vinny), though catching Marino (and/or likely Manning) will prove difficult, especially if the Patriots remain at their current level.

Comebacks:
1. Dan Marino  36
T2. Peyton Manning  35 (Active leader)
T2. John Elway  35
T10. Dave Krieg  24
T10. Dan Fouts  24
T10. Drew Bledsoe  24
13. TOM BRADY  23
14. Jim Kelly  22

Another list with no guarantee but odds are he will get at least one this year, which would move him into the top 10.  Montana ranks fourth with 31.  This could be a reachable mark for him, granted Manning doesn't put it too far out of reach.

I think those lists give everyone a good idea of where Tom Brady ranks on the career passing lists.  We know he owns the single-season touchdown pass mark with 50 in 2007.  He also tied (with 12 others) for the longest touchdown pass of all-time in their opener with his 99 yard touchdown to Wes Welker.  He was also the first QB in history to follow a 500 yard passing game with a 400 yard passing game.  So aside from the career marks it seems like there are plenty of other crazy marks for Brady to still set.  He will likely keep those at the Elias Sports Bureau busy as his career continues.

Can Clemson Contend?

The Clemson Tigers currently stand at 5-0 (2-0 in the ACC) and have risen to #8 in both polls.  Going into the season I figured Florida State and Virginia Tech gave the league their best chance at a National Championship contender but the Tigers have been a surprise.  They have defeated ranked teams in the previous three weeks (Auburn and Florida State at home, Virginia Tech on the road).  Only LSU has as many wins against ranked opponents (though all of LSU's came away from home).

This week Clemson hosts struggling Boston College.  The Eagles have been mediocre at best on offense and should prove to be no match for the Tigers, especially at home.  This is where Clemson needs to prove themselves though.  In past years they have followed up big wins with disappointing performances against lesser opponents.  After BC they visit Maryland then host North Carolina before a huge showdown with Georgia Tech (the ACC's other undefeated squad).  If Clemson wants to prove themselves as an elite team they need to take care of business the next three weeks.

A Quiet Week

This is probably the quietest week in college football thus far in terms of top 25 showdowns.  There are three on the schedule for Saturday and of those three only one (Texas-Oklahoma) features a pair of undefeated teams.

The Florida-LSU game lost some luster after the Gators were blown out at home by Alabama last weekend and lost starting quarterback John Brantley in the process.  They are now expected to start true freshman Jeff Driskel.  On the road in Death Valley against that defense, led by Tyrann Mathieu, will probably prove to be a rude welcome for Driskel, especially after his second half introduction to the Crimson Tide defense last weekend.

The Red River Rivalry between Texas and Oklahoma in Dallas features a pair of undefeateds but Oklahoma has been much more impressive.  Texas benched their quarterback, Garrett Gilbert (who now plans to transfer), after he struggled to start the season.  They now rely on a pair of young signal callers: sophomore Case McCoy (younger brother of Colt) and freshman David Ash.  The Longhorns' strongest opponent to date is probably a toss up between UCLA and BYU, neither of whom are anywhere near the Sooners' level.  Oklahoma has already proven itself on a big stage, beating Florida State on the road, and should roll tomorrow.

On to the picks...

Predictions (Home teams in CAPS)

After posting winning weeks on both fronts I finally stand over .500 in both the NFL and college football!!!  (Let's hope I didn't jinx things for this week.)

NCAA
Oklahoma (-10.5) over TEXAS (neutral site but Texas is the home team)
Maryland (+15) over GEORGIA TECH
CLEMSON (-21) over Boston College
PENN STATE (-4) over Iowa
VIRGINIA TECH (-7.5) over Miami
NOTRE DAME (-14) over Air Force
Kansas (+32) over OKLAHOMA STATE
LSU (-14) over Florida
Auburn (+10) over ARKANSAS
TENNESSEE (+2) over Georgia


Last Week: 6-4
Season: 24-22-4


NFL
Chiefs (+3) over COLTS
Cardinals (+3) over VIKINGS
BILLS (+3) over Eagles
TEXANS (-6) over Raiders
PANTHERS (+7) over Saints
Bengals (+3) over JAGUARS
STEELERS (-3) over Titans
Seahawks (+10) over GIANTS
NINERS (-3) over BUCS
PATRIOTS (-9) over Jets
Chargers (-4) over BRONCOS
Packers (-6) over FALCONS
Bears (+6) over LIONS

Last Week: 11-5
Season: 33-28-3



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