The big storyline this week, in terms of previous matchups between the Patriots and Ravens, has been the 2009 Wild Card beatdown by Baltimore in Gillette Stadium. It almost seems to have been forgotten that the teams met again in the 2010 regular season, again at Gillette.
This game is a better barometer of things we could see on Sunday because Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez were involved unlike in the playoff game (Welker was out with a knee injury, while Gronk and Hernandez were still in college).
Obviously the NFL is an ever-changing league and what we see on Sunday in the AFC Championship won't be the same as what happened the last time they played but there were some interesting tidbits I picked up from re-watching last year's game (thanks to NFL Rewind on NFL.com).
(A couple of disclaimers from that game: first, Ed Reed did not play in this game. Also this was the first game following the Pats' trade of Randy Moss and re-acquisition of Deion Branch. In essence this game marked the beginning of the evolution of the Patriots' offense to what it is today.)
Patriots Offense vs. Ravens Defense
- Fresh off of his performance against the Broncos, which featured him taking some carries as a running back, the topic of Aaron Hernandez's versatility has been a major theme. The 2010 game saw the Patriots begin to explore different ways to get the ball in his hands. By my count he lined up as a tight end, split end, slot, flanker, and fullback in that game.
On the first play of their second drive, New England lined up Hernandez as a fullback and hit him on a wheel route down the sideline for a 30 yard gain.
In the third quarter they lined up in a heavy set with Alge Crumpler and Hernandez lined up next to each other off the ball. They motioned Crumpler and faked the handoff the BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and then gave it to Hernandez on a reverse for an 18 yard gain. They also were creative again getting him the ball in the passing game. The Patriots had Brady fake a quick screen to Welker, who had motioned across the formation, and had Hernandez show that he was going to block then release into the seam. As the defense sucked up on Welker, Hernandez was able to run free for a first down catch.
They also used motion to create a favorable matchup in overtime, even though he dropped the ball. They motioned him across the formation to a slot and got him matched up with a linebacker, who he beat on an out route to the sideline.
- The Patriots also found ways to run the ball successfully in that game. They got a big gain on a first down reverse to Brandon Tate, taking advantage of the Ravens' aggressiveness. They also did a good job of using some quick counts to gain advantages in the run game. They also were productive when they spread Baltimore out and handed the ball to Danny Woodhead.
- Protection for Tom Brady will be a key as always. The line wasn't perfect in this game but on Brady's fourth quarter touchdown pass to Branch they gave him all day against Baltimore's 3 man rush, allowed Brady to slide in the pocket and hit an improvising Branch running across the back of the end zone. Haloti Ngata did give them, especially Dan Koppen, fits at times and they will have to do a better job against him this time around.
- The Ravens, especially in the first half, were very strong defending the Patriots' short passing game. Welker had only 1 catch in the first half, and, despite finishing with 7 catches, was held to fewer than 8 yards per reception. They also fooled Brady with good disguise on his third quarter interception. The Ravens showed a 7 man rush, but dropped into a zone blitz only rushing 4. Dawan Landry came in untouched and hit Brady as he threw and Brady ended up forcing a ball to Welker with three Ravens around. Brady clearly expected man coverage and got fooled. The chess match here between Brady and the Baltimore defense will be highly entertaining to watch.
Patriots Defense vs. Ravens Offense
- The Patriots played their traditional 3-4 defensive front but with a twist. They played Gerard Warren as the nose tackle and played Vince Wilfork as the right defensive end over left tackle Michael Oher. They had been gashed by running back Ray Rice in the playoff game and they were determined to keep Rice from bouncing outside. This scheme proved to be very successful as Rice did not have a carry longer than 8 yards in the game. It will be interesting to see what front the Patriots employ on Sunday and if they play Wilfork outside again with Kyle Love over center.
- Shortening the game against the explosive New England offense is something that is constantly talked about and Baltimore was able to do this last year. They held the ball for over 40 minutes (out of 73) of the game. Their opening drive of the game spanned 14 plays and took 8:32 off of the clock. Later, in the third quarter, they answered a New England field goal with a 6:42 drive that crossed into the fourth quarter. The only negative with those drives was that they both only resulted in field goals and on Sunday they need to try and produce touchdowns.
- Much has been made of Joe Flacco in the lead up to this game, but in this matchup he played very well. On Baltimore's first touchdown Flacco held the free safety in the middle of the field and delivered a strike to Heap for the score. In the third quarter they faked a double screen before hitting Heap on a delay route wide open in the middle, which had been vacated by the linebackers chasing the fakes. He also showed tremendous arm strength on an out route to Derrick Mason in overtime. Kyle Arrington tried to undercut the route but the ball was delivered with such force that he was able to get it to the receiver before Arrington could get there.
- Jermaine Cunningham had a stretch where he completely dominated Michael Oher in the passing game. He beat Oher for a strip sack, drew a holding penalty, and also caused a false start. I expect the Patriots to try and attack Oher with Mark Anderson, who is their best pass rusher.
- The Ravens, who were not penalized at all last week against Houston, also need to try and avoid the back breaking mistakes and penalties that seem to plague them against New England. In overtime Leron McClain took a personal foul that turned a third and 4 into a third and 19. The Ravens were forced to punt and New England ended up driving for the winning field goal.
Sunday's game I believe could unfold in much the same way, and it will be fun to see what adjustments the teams make from their previous matchup as well as based on what they have seen this season. The Patriots' offense is much more explosive now than it was in October of 2010. Ed Reed will be on the field this time, unlike in that game. Joe Flacco also seems a lot less confident recently (as well as preoccupied with how he is perceived by the media) than he did on that day.
What will change and what will stay the same? We will find out on Sunday.
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