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Thursday, September 22, 2011

Gators Looking Ahead to Tough October

The Will Muschamp Era has gotten off to a very successful start so far in Gainesville.  The Gators sport a 3-0 record heading into this weekend's game at Kentucky (Saturday 7 PM).  Now the Gators will say all of the right things like that they are taking the Wildcats seriously, and maybe they are, but the truth is that they should handle their business and head into October 4-0.

And that is when it gets interesting for the Gators.

Florida is facing a murderer's row in October.  It begins next Saturday night with a home date against the Alabama Crimson Tide.  The next two Saturdays will be road tests, beginning with a trip to Death Valley to face LSU followed by a visit to Jordan Hare Stadium to face the defending National Champion Auburn Tigers.  After a bye week the Gators will head to Jacksonville for their annual tilt with the Georgia Bulldogs.

Now nothing could make that schedule easier but Florida does catch some breaks.  Both Alabama and Auburn have to face Arkansas the week before playing the Gators, and they also get a bye week before heading to Jacksonville.

So as the Gators head into their season defining stretch let's take a look at what's been good and bad for Florida in the first month of the season:

Rainey broke open last week's game
GOOD: Chris Rainey has been more than good for the Gators in the first three weeks of the season.  He is averaging 8.8 yards per touch so far this season.  He is averaging 6.4 yards per carry on 48 rushes and 19.5 yards per catch on 11 receptions.  He showed his explosiveness last week in the Tennessee game turning a 3 yard pass into an 83 yard touchdown, speeding through the Volunteer secondary.  He also added a blocked punt in that game.  Rainey has been eager to atone for last season, which saw him get suspended from the team, and he has proven to be one of the key weapons in the Gators' offense.

BAD: The Gators have struggled to complete red zone trips with touchdowns thus far this season.  It was a point of emphasis for the team after they suffered similar struggles last season.  Florida has visited the red zone 16 times this season and has come away with points on 15 of those occasions, but they have only scored touchdowns 9 times.  They only scored touchdowns twice out of four red zone trips against Tennessee last week.  It is an issue that needs to be resolved because Alabama and LSU boast elite defenses and points will be at a premium in those games.  The Gators cannot afford to leave points on the field against those teams.

BAD: Penalties have been another problem for Florida so far this season.  In only 3 games the Gators have amassed 34 penalties for 270 yards.  Against Tennessee they committed 16 penalties for a whopping 150 yards, including 9 pass interference calls.  They need to be more disciplined because they will not be able to recover from frequent penalties against the tougher competition they will be facing throughout October.

GOOD: The defense has proven to be a strength under Muschamp.  The unit is only allowing 8.7 points per game, a number that could improve this weekend against an offensively challenged Kentucky squad.  Their strength has been been stopping the run.  Florida's opponents are averaging only 1.2 yards per carry and 30.4 yards per game rushing this season.  They are also holding opponents to only 20% on third down conversions and 17% on fourth down conversions.  They have only allowed opponents 3 touchdowns in 7 red zone visits.  One of the only areas in which they have struggled is rushing the passer.  They only have 5 sacks in 3 games thus far this season.  The Alabama and LSU games could turn into strength vs strength matchups because both teams want to rush the football and Florida has prided itself in that area.
A visionary

(Thanks to Stewie Griffin for the compliment sandwich model.)

The Gators are entering the pivotal stretch of Will Muschamp's inaugural season in Gainesville.  Expectations may not have been what they usually are but Florida has proven to have an elite defense through three weeks.  October will decide if the defense, and the rest of the team, are championship ready.



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