Every season, especially in the stronger "power" conferences, expectations of conference and national championships are placed on a number of football programs. Failure to reach these goals can lead fans into a frenzy, even to the point of poisoning trees (just ask Harvey Updyke's "alter ego").
At the same time fans also complain about the lack of big-time inter-conference games each season. The problem lies in the fact that the tremendous pressure on schools to win forces them to soften their non-conference schedules. In many leagues, especially the SEC, it is so hard to just get through the league schedule unscathed that many teams are not willing to take on the possibility of losing a game against an out of conference foe.
That all makes sense, I get it.
For fans that desire a smorgasbord of entertaining games on a week to week basis September can often times leave them hungry for more.
This season the first three weeks of September provide some interesting and entertaining matchups that should leave fans happy and also help shape the National Championship picture.
September 3, 2011:
Boise State at Georgia (in Atlanta)
LSU vs Oregon (in Arlington, TX)
September 10, 2011:
Alabama at Penn State
September 17, 2011:
Oklahoma at Florida State
Ohio State at Miami (FL)
Five Games.
Those are the only matchups of non-conference opponents featuring teams that could be in the race for the National Championship this season. Don't get me wrong, the matchups themselves are fantastic. LSU and Alabama both figure to be in the thick of the SEC and National Title races this season while Georgia is stepping up in a pivotal season for Head Coach Mark Richt.
Boise State has longed for opportunities to play power conference teams, especially from the SEC, and get their chance to make an early statement much like they did against Virginia Tech last season.
Meanwhile two ACC teams, Florida State and Miami, get their chance on the same Saturday to show they belong back on the big stage and gain some much needed respect for the ACC.
These games could be an early helper in weeding out some pretenders in the National Championship race. The winners will gain instant notoriety in the college football spectrum as well as some early momentum in the polls. An early win on a big stage could also help them down the road when they get into the heart of their conference schedules.
The question remains though: Does tough early season scheduling by title contenders help or hinder their National Championship aspirations?
To answer this question, I researched the schedules of the National Championship Game participants dating back to 2002. In perusing their schedules I looked for what i termed "step-up games".
Since, unlike in the NFL, teams control who they schedule in most of their non-conference games, I wanted to see which power programs were literally stepping up to take on big-time games.
(Note: for the purpose of this analysis I did not include traditional non-conference rivalry games as "step-ups"; like conference games these matchups have become fairly set in stone and don't typically get taken off of the schedule like other non-conference opponents)
If a team scheduled a game with an opponent from a power conference (SEC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10 (12), or ACC) I awarded them 0.5 points. If they scheduled a non-conference game with a power conference opponent who was ranked at the time of the matchup they were awarded with 1 point.
Here is a table of the National Championship Game participants from 2002-2010 and their "step-ups" in those seasons:
| Year | National Champion | "Step-ups" | National Runner-Up | "Step-ups" |
| 2010 | Auburn | 0.5 | Oregon | 0.5 |
| 2009 | Alabama | 1 | Texas | 0 |
| 2008 | Florida | 0.5 | Oklahoma | 0.5 |
| 2007 | LSU | 0.5 | Ohio State | 0.5 |
| 2006 | Florida | 0 | Ohio State | 1 |
| 2005 | Texas | 1 | USC | 0.5 |
| 2004 | USC | 0.5 | Oklahoma | 0.5 |
| 2003 | LSU | 0.5 | Oklahoma | 0.5 |
| 2002 | Ohio State | 1 | Miami | 1.5 |
As you can see only 5 of the 18 teams that have played for the National Championship since 2002 have scheduled a "1 point" game. Alabama opened the 2009 season in Atlanta against Virginia Tech (#7). Ohio State played at Texas (#2) in 2006. Texas played at Ohio State (#4) in 2005. 2002 was the only year in which both teams playing for the title both scheduled a "1 point" opponent. Ohio State hosted Washington State (#10), while Miami travelled to The Swamp to play Florida (#6). The 2002 Miami team was the only one on the list to surpass 1 point for the non-conference schedule as they also visited Tennessee later in the season.
One National Champion (Florida in 2006) went through their schedule with 0 non-conference points, and only 3 since 2002 won the title with 1 point.
The moral of the story: teams seem to try to schedule some opponents from power conferences, but not ones that could threaten for the National Championship in that given season. This gives the fans the impression of a stronger out of conference slate without truly putting any championship aspirations in peril.
College football fans need to come to terms with the reality that in today's landscape rooting for your team to win championships and have a challenging schedule is counter-intuitive. More often than not the teams that play for the title eased their way into the schedule and saved themselves for their conference opponents.
For football starved fans the appetizers this year are substantial in stature if not in quantity.
Eat up because there's not a lot to go around!
(Author's Note: The issue of non-conference scheduling in college football has always been an important one to me. As a fan I want to see as many high quality games as I can, but as a coach I understand the need for some softer scheduling. David Pollack (former Georgia Bulldog player and current radio personality) tweeted the following earlier this week: "College football fans, do u want your team 2 play tough nonconference opponents or do you like the easy wins with FCS teams?" It is an issue I would have tackled at some point but his tweet prompted me to try and answer his question now. David if you're reading I hope you liked my take on things and I think ultimately we share a similar view.)
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