Desire or Desperation?

Dan Wolken came out with an article today calling out the Patriots as desperate for their acquistions of Chad Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth.  He makes some fair points, but I think calling the Patriots, and specifically Bill Belichick, as desperate is a bit over the top.  I will be up front and admit that I am a huge Patriots fan and definitely subscribe to the notion of "In Bill We Trust."  That being said I think I can make a logical argument against Wolken and not just spew out homerism.

I want to begin with an argument that I have heard elsewhere but is also included in Wolken's piece.  I agree completely with the fact that if the Raiders had made these moves instead of the Patriots they would have faced much more ridicule, but isn't that fair?  The Patriots track record in terms of personnel moves is far and away better than the Raiders.  The Patriots also have a history of bringing in questionable veterans (Corey Dillon, Randy Moss) and having them succeed in their system.  Their success, both on the field and in the front office, is why people aren't laughing at them.

Wolken also speaks as if Haynesworth and Ochocinco are make-or-break pieces to the Patriots's season.  I don't believe that to be the case.  The "no playoff wins in 3 years" argument is completely fair, but remember that this team went 14-2 last season in what was thought to be a rebuilding, or transition, year.  The core of this team is already in place, and even without these moves they would have been favorites to contend in the AFC.  Haynesworth and Ochocinco are pieces that could put them over the top but don't hurt them if they don't pan out. 

In arguing Haynesworth and Ochocinco as make-or-break to this team, Wolken brings up Dillon and Moss and says that they were not make-or-break players for the 2004 and 2007 teams, respectively.

Corey Dillon came in and gave the offense a dimension they had not had prior to 2004.  He ran for nearly 1,700 yards and was key to the ball control that kept Peyton Manning sitting on the sideline in the Divisional Playoff game that year.  It's true that they were defending champions and probably favorites heading into that season, but looking back on 2004 I don't believe the Patriots would have won that Super Bowl.

Moss, on the other hand, also was integral to the 2007 team because he made a very good offense an historic one.  Wolken's argument is that Moss didn't lead the team in catches or yards (the yards argument is incorrect; he led the team that year with 1,493 yards, slightly more than 300 yards ahead of Wes Welker).  Welker led the team in catches that season but a lot of that had to do with Moss opening things up for him underneath.  Also, in case anyone has forgotten, Brady threw an NFL record 50 touchdown passes that season, almost half of which were to Moss (an NFL record 23). 

Call me crazy, but both of them seemed pretty integral to their teams.  I don't foresee Haynesworth or Ochocinco having anything close to that kind of impact, but I also don't think it's necessary for them to have that kind of impact for the Patriots to be successful.

Bill Belichick is also compared to Mike Shanahan at the the end of his Denver run by Wolken.  He speaks of Shanahan giving Daryl Gardener big money as well as taking a flier on Simeon Rice.  These moves are different though because I don't see much risk on the Patriots' end.  They gave up two fifth round picks and a sixth round pick.  Also, both players are restructuring their deals so the financial hit shouldn't be too big if they don't work out.

I also don't buy the notion that Belichick's ego plays a role in these moves.  Wolken argues that Belichick thinks he can turn around any career.  I see it more as Belichick seeing guys who wore out a welcome elsewhere and determining that they still have the ability to be contributors in a new environment.  He can come off as arrogant, I get that, but I believe he makes moves solely because he thinks they can make the team better, not to prove himself as some master motivator.

Haynesworth is more of a risk than Ochocinco in my opinion.  He is further removed from his previous success than Ochocinco is.  Ochocinco put up above average numbers in a pretty bad offense the past couple of seasons.  Surrounded by Brady, Welker, Branch, Gronkowski, and Hernandez I can see him being very successful.  I do think Haynesworth has the potential to have a bigger impact though.  If he can regain his old form he would be the best defensive lineman on the team, and possibly in the AFC.  He would also bring a nastiness back that has been missing since Rodney Harrison and Richard Seymour left.

I think Dan Wolken brings up some fair points, and Belichick does risk looking foolish if they both flame out, but Albert Haynesworth and Chad Ochocinco could also be pieces that put a team coming off of a 14 win season, with an emerging core of young players and the best quarterback in the game, over the top.

Dan calls it desperation, but I see it as a desire by Belichick to get back to where this team was.  This team measures itself by Super Bowl championships and they haven't lived up to that standard in recent years.  Call it desperation, call it desire, call it whatever you want, but Belichick is trying to put his team in the best position to get back to the top and I can live with that.

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SEC West: Heavyweight Division

To read part 1 of my SEC preview on the East click here

If the SEC East is the lightweight division of the conference, then the West is surely the Heavyweight division.

The division boasts the reigning BCS National Champion Auburn Tigers (for now) plus three other teams that had 10 or more wins in 2010 (LSU, Arkansas, Alabama) and a fourth that won 9 games (Mississippi State).

In addition to Auburn last season, Alabama (2009) and LSU (2007) have contributed titles to the SEC's "5-peat".

Things don't appear to be changing in 2011.

Nationalchamps.net has released their 2011 pre-season rankings and 5 of the 6 SEC West teams made the top 25.  In fact, all 5 of those teams (Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Arkansas, and Mississippi State) are ranked in the top 16 and are all ranked ahead of the East's top contender, South Carolina (#17). 

Replacement Players

Several teams in the West will be looking to replace successful Quarterbacks in their quest to get to Atlanta and beyond.  Auburn (Cam Newton), Alabama (Greg McElroy), Arkansas (Ryan Mallett), and Ole Miss (Jeremiah Masoli) all will be playing with new signal callers in 2011.  Arkansas looks to be the only one with a pretty firm replacement, junior Tyler Wilson.  Auburn (Barrett Trotter and Clint Mosely), Alabama (AJ McCarron and Phillip Sims), and Ole Miss (Barry Brunetti and Randall Mackey) all will be waiting to see how their battles play out during the preseason.

Ground and Pound

2011 could become the year of the running back with all of the inexperience at quarterback.  Trent Richardson (Alabama), Brandon Bolden (Ole Miss), Michael Dyer (Auburn), Knile Davis (Arkansas), and Vick Ballard (MSU) all look to be primed to have stellar seasons after strong 2010 campaigns.  

Debbie Downer

There has been a large cloud of negativity hanging over the league this offseason.  In particular, Auburn, Alabama, and LSU have all dealt with NCAA violations or investigations recently.  Auburn continues to be investigated for their recruitment of Cam Newton, Alabama has recently dealt with allegations of improper relationships between the owner of a Tuscaloosa menswear store and Crimson Tide players.  LSU was recently ruled to have committed a major violation and was put on probation.  The Tigers have also had to answer questions about films they received from Willie Lyles, who is at the center of the Oregon investigation.  

All of this comes on the heels of the Harvey Updyke saga and the questions about whether the Alabama-Auburn rivalry has gone too far.  Needless to say there haven't been a lot of positives to discuss for the SEC West, and college football in general, and everyone should be glad that we can finally turn our full attention to actual football games soon.

Hot Seat

The division in general looks to be fairly stable in the coaching ranks.  Five of the six teams are coming off of successful seasons in 2010, and Ole Miss is only a couple of seasons removed from back to back Cotton Bowl appearances.  Despite that Houston Nutt probably faces some job pressure this year.  The Rebels got a taste of sustained success and then took a big fall last season.  They are still flying under the radar this season but they have a lot of offensive playmakers returning this season and they should see some improvement.  If that isn't the case Nutt may be held accountable.

The other coach who could possibly feel some heat this year is Gene Chizik.  The NCAA continues to investigate his program and he has steadfastly denied any wrong doing.  If something is eventually unearthed and the 2010 title gets stripped he may face some pressure from both outside and within the Auburn athletic department.

The Team to Beat

There was definitely something in the water down on the Bayou last season.  It began in the opener in Atlanta when the Tigers survived a furious fourth quarter North Carolina rally, continued with back to back escapes against Tennessee and Florida in October, and was capped off with the fourth down reverse call to set up the go ahead touchdown against Alabama in November.

Heading into 2011 I expect the magic to continue for Les Miles and the LSU Tigers.  

Looking at the schedule they may indeed need some of that magic to get through to Atlanta and beyond.  It starts off with a blockbuster matchup against Oregon in Dallas.  Week 3 gives them their first road test in Starkville on a Thursday night against Mississippi State, followed by a road trip to Morgantown to face West Virginia.  Their season will be defined by a four game in five week stretch beginning on October 8 at home against Florida and ends November 5 in Tuscaloosa against Alabama.  A road game against Tennessee (10/15) and a home date with Auburn (10/22) are sandwiched in between.  The Alabama game could have SEC and National Title implications.  The regular season closes with a home matchup with Arkansas the day after Thanksgiving.

The Tigers do have some question marks this season, but Les Miles has done such a good job recruiting the hope is that they have the depth to answer those questions.  Receiver Terrence Tolliver and running back Stevan Ridley must be replaced on offense.  LSU will look for Michael Ford and Spencer Ware to emerge and stabilize the running game.  Last season's second and third leading receivers, Rueben Randle and Russell Shepard, will need to step up to help a passing game that has struggled in recent years.

Speaking of the passing game Steve Kragthorpe has been brought in to help revitalize it.  Jordan Jefferson, the incumbent, will begin the year as the starter, but if he struggles Georgia-transfer Zach Mettenberger would probably step into that role.  Jarrett Lee, who also has some starting experience, could also be in the mix.  The Tigers won 11 games a year ago with an inconsistent passing game, so if Jefferson and the receivers can provide some consistency they could be very lethal offensively. 

The offensive line should be a source of strength as they will come into 2011 with great depth as 8 players have some starting experience.  This continuity will allow the running game to continue to excel and should take some pressure off of Jefferson.

John Chavis' defense looks primed to have another strong year as well.  Despite losing Patrick Peterson to the NFL, the secondary should be strong again, led by returning starters Morris Claiborne (CB) and Brandon Taylor (SS).  Claiborne could be primed for a huge season as he saw a lot of passes thrown his way opposite Peterson last year.

The biggest questions on this side of the ball are up the middle.  The Tigers have holes to fill both at defensive tackle and middle linebacker.  Kelvin Sheppard is a big loss for Chavis and he will continue to look for a replacement through the preseason.  Inside on the line, Michael Brockers is the only tackle to have ever started a game.  They do lack some experience at the position but have some impressive recruits coming in who could see playing time right away.

The SEC West looks to be a murderer's row this season, but LSU has quarterback continuity and a lot of depth that should aid them in the war of attrition that is the SEC schedule.  It won't be easy but something tells me Les Miles still has some tricks to pull out of his hat.

If he does then the Tigers may not only be celebrating in Atlanta but they could also be raising the crystal football come January.

(Thanks again to Todd Helmick and his website, nationalchamps.net, the site does a great job previewing the season and was a great source of help to me, give it a look and follow him on Twitter,  @NtlChampsDotNet)

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SEC East=SEC Least?

The Southeastern Conference has become the defining conference in college football.

The conference has won 7 National Championships in the BCS era, including 5 consecutive heading into the 2011 season.

The conference is widely considered to be the best in football from top to bottom.

The gap between top and bottom appears to be widening though and the bottom these days is pretty much populated by the SEC's East division.

Six teams in the SEC won 9 or more games last season, including four with 10 or more wins.  Only one team came from the East (South Carolina).

The division's traditional powers (Florida, Tennessee, and Georgia) have recently found themselves on tough times.  The three teams combined for only 10 SEC wins last season or 2 less than eventual National Champion Auburn had on its own.

Between regime changes and youth a season similar to 2010 is not out of the realm of possibility for the SEC East.

Coach On The Hot Seat

The SEC East's hot seat belongs to Georgia's Mark Richt this season.  Richt is the longest tenured coach in the league right now, but will likely face the most on-the-job pressure this year.  In ten seasons leading the Bulldogs, Richt has amassed 96 victories, but only 2 SEC championships.  He is coming off back to back disappointing seasons (8-5 in 2009 and 6-7 last season).  He has not won an SEC title since 2005 and his highest ranking (#2 in 2007) came in a year when the Dawgs did not even play in Atlanta.  

There is good news for Richt though.  He will have two big opportunities to relieve some of the pressure right out of the gate.  Georgia opens up with a high profile matchup against Boise State in Atlanta, and then hosts pre-season East division favorite South Carolina a week later.  He also doesn't have to face Urban Meyer again (1-5 over the last 6 seasons).

Square Pegs For A Round Hole?

Florida heads into its first season under new coach Will Muschamp, who replaces the legendary Urban Meyer.  Meyer was an excellent recruiter of talent, but his offense was very unique.  Because of that, new offensive coordinator Charlie Weis' pro-style offense could struggle.  Tailbacks Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey return and provide a great deal of speed, but neither is a prototypical pro-style running back.  Fortunately Weis has a solid QB for his system in John Brantley and Weis has had success integrating new QB's into his offense (Tom Brady, Brady Quinn, Matt Cassel).  Deonte Thompson should lead the receiving corps and Rainey will probably see some time playing as a slot receiver.  Former QB's Jordan Reed and Trey Burton, recruited by Meyer, will move to Tight End and Running Back, respectively.

The Gators may have to lean on their defense this season and the October schedule looks to be brutal with a home game against Alabama followed by back to back road games against LSU and Auburn, then the annual matchup with Georgia in Jacksonville after a bye week.

Inexperience Is The Word

The word to best describe the SEC East in 2011 may be inexperience.  Florida (Will Muschamp) and Vanderbilt (James Franklin) will be led by new head coaches.  Kentucky (Joker Phillips) and Tennessee (Derek Dooley) are led by second year head coaches.  Tennessee comes into 2011 with 57 freshmen and sophomores on his roster, including sophomore starting QB Tyler Bray.  Georgia's hopes also depend on a sophomore QB in Aaron Murray.

The Team To Beat
South Carolina is the reigning SEC East division champion (for the first time in school history) and looks to be the favorite again heading into 2011.

This year's squad looks to be the most talented of the Steve Spurrier era, especially on the offensive side of the ball.

Alshon Jeffery returns to lead the receiving corps after an otherworldly season in 2010.  Jeffery set school records with 88 receptions and 1,517 yards and added 9 touchdowns.  Their second leading receiver from 2010, Tori Gurley, left for a shot at the NFL (went undrafted) and will need to be replaced.  Senior Jason Barnes (6 receptions in '10), Junior D.L. Moore (17 receptions), and Sophomores Ace Sanders (25) and Deangelo Smith (1) project to contribute behind Jeffery in the receiving corps.  Jeffery, Barnes, and Moore are all listed at 6'4 which could create matchup problems for defenses.

The 2010 SEC Freshman of the Year, Marcus Lattimore, returns to carry the load in the backfield.  Lattimore  ran for 1,157 yards (4.8 YPC) with 17 touchdowns a year ago.  He also proved to be a weapon in the passing game adding 29 catches for 412 yards and 2 TDs.  South Carolina has him listed at 231 pounds, up from the 218 he was listed at in 2010 and he is said to have improved his speed.  It is imperative for Lattimore to stay healthy as there is not much experience behind him.  Kenny Miles is listed as his backup, but he saw only 40 carries last season after 117 in 2009.

The Gamecocks' biggest question mark comes at Quarterback.  Fifth year Senior Stephen Garcia has been suspended indefinitely but Spurrier says he will be present when camp opens.  He has had a host of behavioral issues in the past but should regain his starting role if he stays in line.  Garcia enjoyed his best season at USC in 2010, throwing for 3,059 yards with 20 TD's and 14 interceptions.  If Garcia blows his opportunity the job will likely fall to sophomore Connor Shaw.  Shaw has only attempted 33 passes in his career and struggled as the top QB in the spring.

Defensively the strength of the team should be up front along the line.  Defensive end Devin Taylor returns for his junior season.  He has racked up 9.5 sacks and 18.5 tackles for loss for his career and is a beast physically at 6'7 and 248 pounds.  The nation's #1 recruit Jadeveon Clowney figures to step in and contribute right away as well.  Senior Travian Robertson (6'4, 298) will be the anchor on the inside.

Linebacker is the team's biggest question area on the defensive side of the ball.  Junior Shaq Wilson and Senior Rodney Paulk are expected to step into the middle and weak side linebacker positions, respectively, but both have had injury issues.

The secondary returns 3 starters, including both cornerbacks in senior Akeem Auguste and junior Stephon Gilmore.  Junior safety D.J. Swearinger also returns.  Gilmore was the team's leading tackler last season and also led the team in interceptions with 3.

The Gamecocks could benefit from another weak year overall in the East, but their issues at QB, offensive line, and linebacker need to be solved quickly because a trip to Athens to meet Georgia looms in week 2.  Their toughest stretch should be a string of three straight road games against Mississippi State, Tennessee, and Arkansas, but they do have the benefit of not playing either Alabama or LSU in the regular season (though they likely will see one of them in Atlanta in December). 

(Thanks to Todd Helmick at nationalchamps.net as well as USC's official athletic site for depth chart and other information on the Gamecocks, all stats came from ESPN's USC clubhouse page and USC's site)

To read part 2 of my SEC preview, on the SEC West, click here.

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A New Era in WWE(?)

When a PPV delivers, especially the main event, & then the show goes off the air w/ more questions than answers I'd say that's a good nite.

-Jim Ross (on his Twitter last night @JRsBBQ) 

Compelling: Evoking interest, attention, or admiration in a powerfully irresistible way.  When I watched CM Punk deliver his promo on Monday Night Raw this week, that was the word that came to mind.

-Gus Ramsey (June 28, 2011 on his blog, Gus Stuff) 

For the first time in a long time the WWE, and more specifically CM Punk, is creating compelling drama leaving their viewers guessing.  It all started with Punk's promo to close Raw on June 27 and last night continuted the trend.

Last night was an historic night in Chicago as the viewers of WWE's Money in the Bank pay-per-view saw the newly crowned WWE champion leave the arena and, as part of the storyline, the company with the flagship championship belt.

Some background:  CM Punk's WWE contract was set to expire at some point this month.  Rumors swirled that he was going to be leaving the company.  The June 27 edition of Monday Night Raw ended with an emotional promo by Punk basically calling out the WWE, namely Vince McMahon and his higher ups, for not recognizing him as a star and affording him the opportunities to be a headliner that others have received.  

That promo was a masterpiece because no one knew how much of it was a "work" (scripted) and how much was a "shoot" (off the cuff).  The next week saw Vince McMahon "suspend" him only to "reinstate" him after pleading by the company's top star John Cena.

Last week in Boston Punk and McMahon went face to face during a "public negotiation".  Punk tore up a fictitious contract and vowed to defeat John Cena at Money in the Bank, become WWE Champion, and to leave once and for all with the belt.

For the past week more rumors swirled that Punk truly was unsigned after Money in the Bank and that the pay-per-view would be his last appearance.  Punk even conducted an interview in GQ and spoke more about his dissatisfaction with the company and how he truly planned to leave and go elsewhere.

All of that set the stage for the match itself in Chicago (Punk's hometown) last night.  WWE continued to tease the storyline that Punk was unsigned.

Shortly before 10 o'clock in the east CM Punk emerged from behind the curtain and received a hero's welcome from his hometown fans.  Right about this time it became clear that Punk was staying with the WWE.  He was debuting a new t-shirt and Poopa quickly noticed that it had the WWE logo on it, and I later noticed at least one fan in the crowd wearing it.  Obviously the company is not going to go to the trouble of producing new merchandise for a superstar that is leaving so now the only questions remaining were how WWE would handle the story line.

And they hit it out of the park.  They teased a "screwjob" finish where Vince tried to have the match stopped and Cena declared the winner (much like Montreal in 1997 with Bret Hart and Shawn Michaels).  After that backfired and Punk won the match Vince got on a headset and tried to have Alberto Del Rio rush to the ring and cash in his title shot to "save" the title.  Punk was able to escape out of the ring and, with a kiss goodbye to Vince and the WWE, escaped out of the arena through the crowd with the WWE Championship in hand.

So, as stated before, it is now clear that CM Punk is indeed still a WWE employee in real life.  The questions now all lie in how WWE treats the story line on television.

Per "stipulation" John Cena should be "fired" from the WWE by Vince McMahon on Raw this evening.  After that nothing is clear. 

How long will they keep Punk off of television?

Will they have him appear with the title in some smaller promotions to sell that he has indeed left the company with its championship?

How will Cena's "firing" be handled and will he be kept off television for any significant amount of time?

It is clear that WWE has caught lightning in a bottle with Punk, much like they did with Steve Austin back in 1997. They need to tread carefully though.  If they keep Punk off television too long he may lose some of the momentum that he has built over the last month.  If they bring him back too quick then the story line loses some of its luster.

There are lots of questions to be answered in terms of the story line and that is a good thing.  Not knowing what is going to happen is a very refreshing feeling.  As recently as April it seemed that WWE may have been stuck in a rut with no way out.  The only thing people seemed to have to look forward to was the Rock-Cena match scheduled for next year's Wrestlemania.  June 27 changed that and the past month has gotten wrestling fans instead looking with anticipation to each week's episode of Raw.

It's good to know that CM Punk will be around long-term with the WWE.  A new era has seemingly begun.

I have no idea what will happen next and I see that as a very good development.

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ACC Football and the Battle for Respect

The ACC is technically considered one of college football's power conferences.

They are one of the six conferences (SEC, Big 12, Big 10, Pac 12, Big East, ACC) granted an automatic bid for its league champion in the Bowl Championship Series each year.  These leagues have the inside track to gaining bids in the national championship game.

All six conferences have been represented in the national championship game since the BCS was established in 1998.  The SEC has become the dominant conference as it enters this season as the 5-time defending BCS National Champions.

The league with the longest championship drought?

That would be the "little brother" of southern football, the ACC.

The ACC has not been represented in the BCS Championship Game since Florida State lost to Oklahoma in the 2001 Orange Bowl (an ugly 13-2 affair, and no that score is not a typo).  That game marked Florida State's third straight title game appearance.  The Seminoles won the 1999 National Championship (defeating Virginia Tech in the 2000 Sugar Bowl) during that stretch and were just completing one of the greatest runs in college football history:

14 Years (1987-2000)
2 National Championships (1993 and 1999)
10+ wins each season
Top 5 in the AP poll each season
9 Outright or shared ACC Championships

From their entrance into the league in 1992 through 2005 the Seminoles WERE the ACC.  They won 12 league championships in their first 14 seasons in the league.  They gave the league national exposure and prestige.

One problem.

A run like that can only last so long.

Since Florida State's run ended the ACC has been looking for a team to step up and bring back some of that prestige.  The conference has seen itself expand (adding Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College) but it's also seen a reputation for mediocrity bestowed on it.

That reputation has been well-deserved, as the league has only had one team finish with fewer than 3 losses since 2005 (Virginia Tech in 2005).  To make matters worse the Hokies weren't even the league champions that year; they were upset in the inaugural ACC Championship game by Florida State.

Miami, Florida State, and to a lesser extent Virginia Tech were expected to be the league's marquee teams when the 12 team "super-conference" was formed.  Only Virginia Tech has held up their end of the bargain.  The Hokies have played in 4 of the 6 ACC Championship Games, winning 3 of them.  Meanwhile Florida State has played in the game twice (winning once) and Miami has never made it.

So as the 2011 season dawns the ACC once again finds itself trying to regain some semblance of national respect, an acknowledgment that they belong with the other "power" conferences.

They can do that in one of two ways:
1- produce a legitimate National Championship contender
2- win a marquee inter-conference match up

Both have proven to be easier said than done for the conference in recent years. 

Since 2005, Boston College (2007) and Virginia Tech (2005) are the only teams from the ACC to make it through October undefeated, but neither team ended up winning even the conference championship. 

And one needs to only go back to last season to see how the conference has fared recently in big-time out of conference games.  The first two weeks of the 2010 season saw North Carolina lose to LSU, Virginia Tech fall to Boise State, Florida State get blown out by Oklahoma, and Miami handled by Ohio State.

2011 won't provide as many potential statement games, but Florida State and Miami do get shots at redemption against Oklahoma and Ohio State, respectively.

The Oklahoma game looms the largest for both the Seminoles and the ACC.  Oklahoma is a projected top-3 team, a true title contender.  If Florida State can win that game (at home) they could have an inside track to the National Championship game.  The Seminoles don't play Miami or North Carolina this season, catch Florida in a potential down year, and play 4 of their final 6 games at home. 

Virginia Tech could also quietly sneak into the title chase this season.  They have softened their non-conference schedule and the league schedule provides some perks as well.  They play Clemson, Miami, and North Carolina at home and their toughest conference road game appears to be a Thursday night trip to Georgia Tech in November.  It is not an easy schedule, but their toughest games will be in Lane Stadium.

The ACC will not have the top to bottom depth that the SEC has but the opportunities are there to gain some national prominence. 

Ultimately the ACC would like to finally realize the vision they had of a "super conference" back in 2005.

For this year though they would just like to be back in the national discussion.

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Risk vs Reward

College football fans are a difficult bunch to please.

Every season, especially in the stronger "power" conferences, expectations of conference and national championships are placed on a number of football programs.  Failure to reach these goals can lead fans into a frenzy, even to the point of poisoning trees (just ask Harvey Updyke's "alter ego").

At the same time fans also complain about the lack of big-time inter-conference games each season.  The problem lies in the fact that the tremendous pressure on schools to win forces them to soften their non-conference schedules.  In many leagues, especially the SEC, it is so hard to just get through the league schedule unscathed that many teams are not willing to take on the possibility of losing a game against an out of conference foe. 

That all makes sense, I get it.

For fans that desire a smorgasbord of entertaining games on a week to week basis September can often times leave them hungry for more.

This season the first three weeks of September provide some interesting and entertaining matchups that should leave fans happy and also help shape the National Championship picture.

September 3, 2011:
Boise State at Georgia (in Atlanta)
LSU vs Oregon (in Arlington, TX)

September 10, 2011:
Alabama at Penn State

September 17, 2011:
Oklahoma at Florida State
Ohio State at Miami (FL)

Five Games.

Those are the only matchups of non-conference opponents featuring teams that could be in the race for the National Championship this season.  Don't get me wrong, the matchups themselves are fantastic.  LSU and Alabama both figure to be in the thick of the SEC and National Title races this season while Georgia is stepping up in a pivotal season for Head Coach Mark Richt.

Boise State has longed for opportunities to play power conference teams, especially from the SEC, and get their chance to make an early statement much like they did against Virginia Tech last season.

Meanwhile two ACC teams, Florida State and Miami, get their chance on the same Saturday to show they belong back on the big stage and gain some much needed respect for the ACC.

These games could be an early helper in weeding out some pretenders in the National Championship race.  The winners will gain instant notoriety in the college football spectrum as well as some early momentum in the polls.  An early win on a big stage could also help them down the road when they get into the heart of their conference schedules.

The question remains though: Does tough early season scheduling by title contenders help or hinder their National Championship aspirations?

To answer this question, I researched the schedules of the National Championship Game participants dating back to 2002.  In perusing their schedules I looked for what i termed "step-up games".

Since, unlike in the NFL, teams control who they schedule in most of their non-conference games, I wanted to see which power programs were literally stepping up to take on big-time games.  

(Note: for the purpose of this analysis I did not include traditional non-conference rivalry games as "step-ups"; like conference games these matchups have become fairly set in stone and don't typically get taken off of the schedule like other non-conference opponents)

If a team scheduled a game with an opponent from a power conference (SEC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10 (12), or ACC) I awarded them 0.5 points.  If they scheduled a non-conference game with a power conference opponent who was ranked at the time of the matchup they were awarded with 1 point.

Here is a table of the National Championship Game participants from 2002-2010 and their "step-ups" in those seasons:

Year	National Champion	"Step-ups"	National Runner-Up	"Step-ups"
2010	Auburn	0.5	Oregon	0.5
2009	Alabama	1	Texas	0
2008	Florida	0.5	Oklahoma	0.5
2007	LSU	0.5	Ohio State	0.5
2006	Florida	0	Ohio State	1
2005	Texas	1	USC	0.5
2004	USC	0.5	Oklahoma	0.5
2003	LSU	0.5	Oklahoma	0.5
2002	Ohio State	1	Miami	1.5

As you can see only 5 of the 18 teams that have played for the National Championship since 2002 have scheduled a "1 point" game.  Alabama opened the 2009 season in Atlanta against Virginia Tech (#7).  Ohio State played at Texas (#2) in 2006.  Texas played at Ohio State (#4) in 2005.  2002 was the only year in which both teams playing for the title both scheduled a "1 point" opponent.  Ohio State hosted Washington State (#10), while Miami travelled to The Swamp to play Florida (#6).  The 2002 Miami team was the only one on the list to surpass 1 point for the non-conference schedule as they also visited Tennessee later in the season.

One National Champion (Florida in 2006) went through their schedule with 0 non-conference points, and only 3 since 2002 won the title with 1 point.

The moral of the story:  teams seem to try to schedule some opponents from power conferences, but not ones that could threaten for the National Championship in that given season.  This gives the fans the impression of a stronger out of conference slate without truly putting any championship aspirations in peril.

College football fans need to come to terms with the reality that in today's landscape rooting for your team to win championships and have a challenging schedule is counter-intuitive.  More often than not the teams that play for the title eased their way into the schedule and saved themselves for their conference opponents.

For football starved fans the appetizers this year are substantial in stature if not in quantity.

Eat up because there's not a lot to go around!

(Author's Note: The issue of non-conference scheduling in college football has always been an important one to me. As a fan I want to see as many high quality games as I can, but as a coach I understand the need for some softer scheduling.  David Pollack (former Georgia Bulldog player and current radio personality) tweeted the following earlier this week: "College football fans, do u want your team 2 play tough nonconference opponents or do you like the easy wins with FCS teams?"  It is an issue I would have tackled at some point but his tweet prompted me to try and answer his question now.  David if you're reading I hope you liked my take on things and I think ultimately we share a similar view.)

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