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Sunday, September 25, 2011

It's LSU, Alabama, Then the Rest in the SEC

College football's first month is now almost complete.  It will be October the next time the majority of schools take the field.  As usual the SEC has dominated most of the on-field headlines.  Depending on the rankings the league boasts two of the top three teams in the country, (possibly the top two when the new rankings come out later today) in LSU and Alabama.

The next month should be extremely interesting as we build towards a potential super showdown in Tuscaloosa on November 5 between Alabama and LSU.  October will be filled with a number of big games with both SEC and BCS ramifications.

We all know LSU and Bama are legit but can any other teams step up and show they belong in the upper echelon?

Arkansas had an opportunity yesterday against the Tide but were completely overwhelmed by Alabama's big plays.  Florida has gotten off to a 4-0 start (2-0 in the SEC) and could prove to be a worthy contender in the East, but back to back games against Alabama and LSU the next two weeks should show us where they stand in the SEC overall.

As we start to look ahead to an exciting month let's see how the SEC stacks up after September.

12. Kentucky (2-2, 0-2 SEC): The month of September ended with the Wildcats extending their losing streak to Florida to 25 games.  They also played in what Clay Travis deemed to be the "worst football game of all-time."  They have scored 68 points in 4 games so far (17 PPG).  Their high water mark for points scored this season is 27.  That came against Central Michigan, who is 1-3 with their lone win coming against South Carolina......State.  They have also accomplished all of this without playing a true road game.  That changes next Saturday when they head to Death Valley to face off with (and get steam rolled by) LSU.

11. Ole Miss (1-3, 0-2): The Rebels slide ahead of Kentucky by exactly a touchdown because they have only managed to score 7 more points (75) than the Wildcats.  Their season thus far can be epitomized by their opening day loss to BYU.  They managed only 1 touchdown in the game but still led 13-0 early in the fourth quarter.  After seeing the lead cut to 13-7 the Rebels allowed a strip sack to be recovered in the end zone for a touchdown and lost the game 14-13.  They have been outscored 57-20 in their opening 2 SEC games, losses to Vanderbilt and Georgia.  A road game at Fresno State and a bye week serve as the prelude to back to back home games against Alabama and Arkansas.

10. Mississippi State (1-3, 0-2): Dan Mullen has talked about not wanting to leave Starkville for jobs that are perceived to be better and higher profile.  Well he might want to start worrying about keeping his job at MSU.  He has shown no ability to beat the other teams in the SEC West, save for Ole Miss, and at some point these close losses have to turn into victories or else he will be gone.  The Tigers lost by inches to Auburn and followed that up with a hard fought performance at home against LSU.  Unfortunately their 2 wins came over a Memphis team that makes Kentucky's offense look like Oregon's and in overtime over Lousiana Tech.  Mark Richt may still lose his job in Athens but at least he knows there is one less candidate to replace him.

9. Georgia (2-2, 1-1): The aforementioned Richt and his squad will get a shot at Mullen and Co. in Athens next Saturday.  Richt is still positioned firmly on the hot seat right now but his remaining schedule could help him out.  He doesn't play any of the big guns in the West this year and every remaining game is winnable.  He may have to win out though.  The Dawgs have shown that they will fight for their coach.  They went down to the wire against South Carolina after the opening loss to Boise State and have taken care of business against Coastal Carolina and Ole Miss.  They cannot afford to do worse than 2-1 over their next 3 games (MSU, at Tennessee, at Vanderbilt) heading into their annual matchup in Jacksonville with the Gators if they want to keep Richt in Athens.

8. Tennessee (2-1, 0-1): Hopes were high in Knoxville heading into the Florida game last weekend.  Tyler Bray, Justin Hunter, and Da'Rick Rogers had been lighting up the world in the first two weeks of the season and thought their time had arrived to once again contend, at least with USC in the East.  Suddenly Hunter was down with a knee injury after a first down catch and Tennessee couldn't recover.  The Vols have had a week to stew over the loss to the Gators in the Swamp and will get Buffalo next Saturday before returning to their SEC schedule.  The Georgia game will be huge because it precedes a three game stretch that sees them host LSU, travel to Alabama, and host South Carolina.  A loss to the Dawgs could have the Vols looking at a 3-5 record come the end of October with their bowl chances in serious jeopardy.

7. Arkansas (3-1, 0-1): Another chance to announce themselves on the national scene and another disappointment for the Razorbacks.  Down 10-7 and playing well Arkansas saw it all unravel with a pick 6 late in the second quarter and a punt return touchdown early in the third. Ballgame.  Arkansas checked out at that point, as was evidenced when they fell asleep and allowed Trent Richardson to take a screen pass 61 yards to the house.  They open October against a Texas A&M squad that will be trying to bounce back from another heartbreaking loss to Oklahoma State.  The schedule softens after that and it isn't conceivable to think that they could run the table heading into their regular season finale with LSU but they effectively lost any shot at the West this year because I can't see Alabama losing twice between now and the end of the season.

6. Vanderbilt (3-1, 1-1): I am not going to lie.  The main reason I put Vandy ahead of Arkansas stems from spite over Arkansas' stinker in Tuscaloosa.  Vandy suffered their first loss of the season yesterday at South Carolina.  They managed a whopping 77 yards of total offense on the afternoon.  After a bye week next week they have to travel to Tuscaloosa where double digits in total yards could be a possibility again.  A stretch of Georgia, Army, and Arkansas at home could still see the Commodores at 5-3 by October's end.  That would make a bowl bid very likely, 4-4 would require wins over Kentucky and Wake Forest in November.  Even with today's performance most people have to be satisfied with James Franklin's first season to date.

5. Auburn (3-1, 1-0): The winning streak ended last week and a new one, possibly a short lived new one, began yesterday with a 30-14 victory over Florida Atlantic.  Now the Tigers face 5 games in the next 5 Saturdays before getting a bye week to begin November.  They will need the rest.  The next four games will see Auburn travel to South Carolina and Arkansas, host Florida, and travel to LSU.  They close the month with a home game against Ole Miss.  A 1-4 month is very much in play.  The Florida game could be their best chance to avoid that fate.  The Gators will be coming off back to back games against Alabama and LSU and it will be their second straight road game.  The fact that they have now allowed fewer than 34 points in their 3 games outside of the FAU win does not bode well for Gene Chizik's team.

4. Florida (4-0, 2-0): The Gators were expected to be no worse than 3-1 after September so the record should not be a surprise.  They took care of business against Kentucky yesterday and now can focus on the Crimson Tide.  Florida's defense has looked elite in the first month and the offense has been efficient for the most part.  Will Muschamp and the Gators will find out quickly if they are truly a championship-level football team.  After Alabama they travel to Baton Rouge and Auburn before a bye week and then their matchup in Jacksonville with Georgia.  The defense is currently 5th in the nation in points allowed.  If they are still in the top 10 heading into November then we could be looking at a true contender.

3. South Carolina (4-0, 2-0): The Gamecocks are the best of the rest.  This ranking is based more on their talent than on their performance so far this season.  They have scored 146 points in the season's first month but have allowed 103.  Marcus Lattimore has been the key cog with 534 yards and 7 touchdowns but he is also averaging over 20 carries per game in an extremely physical conference.  Lattimore cannot be expected to keep up that pace, and Stephen Garcia and Alshon Jeffery need to pick up their production to help ease the pressure on their star tailback.  South Carolina is also fortunate to have the easiest October slate out of all the contenders.  Their slate of Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Tennessee make 8-0 through 2 months a very real possibility.  Avoiding LSU and Alabama in the regular season should help them put the pressure on Florida to keep pace in the East.

2. Alabama (4-0, 1-0): The second best September in the country would normally afford a team the top spot in their conference, but unfortunately in the SEC that is not the case.  Alabama entered the season with questions at the quarterback spot but seemed to have found the answer in A.J. McCarron.  They answered the bell on the road at Penn State two weeks ago and answered their first SEC challenge by running Arkansas out of Bryant Denny Stadium yesterday.  The defense is second in the county in points against and Trent Richardson and Marquis Maze have provided big plays on offense and in special teams.  If they survive the Swamp next weekend the Tide will be 8-0 heading into their November 5 home game with LSU.

1. LSU (4-0, 1-0): The best September in the country belongs to the Bayou Bengals.  Les Miles' squad defeated three ranked teams away from Tiger Stadium.  According to Clay Travis the rest of the top 25 combined for 5 wins against ranked teams away from home.  Based on performance LSU has to be the #1 team in the country.  Their toughest October matchup will be Florida, who they get at home and they only have to travel once, to Tennessee.  This team seems to have The Look of a championship team.  The ease with which they took control of that game after West Virginia cut the lead to 6 last night was frightening.  The defense is fast, physical, and nasty, as is their running game.  Jarrett Lee has proven that he can lead this team in hostile environments, which should help since they will be traveling to Tuscaloosa on November 5 to possibly decide one half of the BCS Championship Game.



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