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Thursday, August 4, 2011

For Ellsbury, Redemption Could Be Spelled M-V-P

The ever-changing nature of sports can be unbelievable sometimes.

A year ago Jacoby Ellsbury was a major topic of discussion among Red Sox fans and the media, just as he is this year.  

Last year Ellsbury was at the center of a controversy that called his desire to play and the Red Sox medical staff into question.  It turned out he had broken ribs and had been previously misdiagnosed.  Ellsbury suffered a lot in the media and in fan opinion.  Popular opinion declared Ellsbury to be soft and a diva, unwilling to play through the pain. 

The diagnosis that he indeed had broken ribs should have helped to sway opinion back to his side, but the reality was that Ellsbury needed to come out and have a productive 2011 to completely regain favor in Boston, especially after the signing of Carl Crawford.  To say he has done that would be an understatement of epic proportions.

Jacoby Ellsbury has transformed himself into an American League MVP candidate this season.

This is not an overreaction to his back-to-back thrilling walk off hits the last two nights.  In reality he has been quietly moving himself into the MVP discussion.  The last two games should help him get some of the national recognition and exposure he has been missing.

He is having the most complete season of his career.  He is contributing to the team at the plate, on the basepaths, and in the field.  He had an excellent first half of the season and has continued his high level since the All-Star break. 

He has also proven that he can be a durable player.  Ellsbury is on pace to play in more games than he has in his career, appearing in 108 out of 109 games this season, including 103 starts.

He has been a steady presence at the top of an excellent Boston lineup.  He is producing at a pace that far surpasses his other 2 full seasons in the majors.  His 18 home runs are more than he hit in 2008 and 2009 combined (17), and his 65 RBI are already a career high with 52 games still to play.  His .317 average (tied for 5th currently in the AL) is also on pace to be far and away his best during his full seasons.

He is also doing a better job of being a leadoff hitter.  He has never traditionally walked a lot, but he has 36 on the season, and his walks to plate appearance rate is the highest of his career to date.  This has helped him to raise his OBP to .373 which would be his career high for a full season.  This all results from working pitchers more than he has in the past.  He is seeing a career high 3.91 pitches per plate appearance this season.

He has also continued to contribute on the basepaths, even if he hasn't been living up to his own standards in that department.  He has 31 steals so far (4th in the AL), putting him on pace for the third 40+ steal season of his career.  His 82 runs scored are a testament to his ability to get on base and run the bases as well as the strength of the lineup behind him.  So far this season he has scored 45% of the time he has reached base.

Ellsbury has also justified the team's decision to keep him in center field over Carl Crawford.  He has not made any errors this season, has contributed 5 assists, and produced 3 double plays.

The last two walk off hits have also brought more attention to the fact that Ellsbury has been clutch this season.  He is batting .395 with 2 outs and RISP, .303 when in "Late and Close"* situations, and .318 in tie game situations.  Also in 35 9th inning at bats this season Ellsbury is hitting .457.

(* Baseball Reference defines "Late and Close" as plate appearances in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck.)

Adrian Gonzalez is obviously putting up monster numbers for the team as well this season, but Jacoby Ellsbury is finally getting some recognition that he has been just as integral to the Red Sox and their success this season.  He may still have some doubters, but with each game they seem to be dwindling, as Ellsbury continues to produce.  He hasn't slowed down since a hot start and continues to get better.

There may just be two MVP candidates residing in Fenway in 2011.

(Both ESPN and baseball-reference.com were a great help in compiling statistics)



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