To view my Western Conference rambling preview from earlier today click here.
The Eastern Conference Semi-Finals are the wild card of this second round. One matchup on paper looks like it should be a potential seven game war while another looks like a dud. The series I expect to be the war is Celtics-Heat while Hawks-Bulls seems like it is shaping up to be like last year’s terrible Magic-Hawks series. For those wondering what was so bad about that series, the Hawks were swept by Orlando by a combined 101 points.
Mike Woodson wipe those eyes and enjoy my thoughts on the East:
- I HATE the Hawks. Let me be clear about that up front. I hate that they drop confetti/streamers after every playoff win like they just defeated the alien team in Space Jam to save the world. I hate that KG is labeled a punk and is called out while Zaza Pachulia runs around like the southern version of P.K. Subban and is labeled one of the NBA’s “tough guys”. Josh Smith always seems like he could be so much better but is content to coast and shoot 3’s and only occasionally shows flashes of the player he could be. Joe Johnson was the best player on the team to suffer the worst sweep in NBA history and somehow cashed in on that with a ridiculous contract. I think they are soft. I think they got lucky that Hedo Turkoglu and Jason Richardson had abysmal performances and left Dwight Howard hanging. I don’t see them winning more than one game against Chicago.
- Their only hope is for Derrick Rose to aggravate his ankle that he injured in the Indiana series. Considering Rose went for 25 points the game after spraining the ankle and now has had some time to rest, it doesn’t seem like that is going to happen. Atlanta also lost their best option to defend Rose for possibly the entire series when Kirk Hinrich injured his hamstring at the end of their series clinching win against Orlando. The Hawks will probably now have to start Jamal Crawford who is a good offensive player but will have problems staying with Rose on the other end. If they choose to keep Crawford in his sixth man role off of the bench then they will have to go to Jeff Teague, a second year player who only played 9 minutes in the first round. Either way Rose should be able to have his way with Atlanta.
- It will be interesting to see how Chicago responds following their elimination of Indiana. The Pacers led in the fourth quarter of the first four games in the series, but were only able to win one of them. If Rose can be slowed down it remains to be seen who they trust to take a big shot other than Kyle Korver or maybe Luol Deng. Carlos Boozer is banged up but expects to play in the series but he could struggle with Al Horford. As has been the case all season this team will go as far as Rose can carry them. He has played at an unbelievable level all year but he got banged around in the Indiana series and the Bulls have to hope he can just keep taking the hits because no one player is more vital to his team’s success than Rose.
- Earlier in the season I wrote that the Heat were relying too much on their Big Three offensively. At that point they were averaging over 65% of their team’s field goal attempts. Most teams see an increase in shot attempts for their best players in the playoffs and I wondered if we might see LeBron, Wade, and Bosh average over 70% of Miami’s shots in the playoffs. We did not see that in the first round, but their numbers did have an interesting trend. At the start of the series their percentage of shots taken was actually below 60%. As the series progressed the percentage increased though. The last three games against Philadelphia saw the percentage go up to over 67% each game. It’s only natural that a team’s best players are going to dominate the ball more as the games increase in importance but their numbers are already so skewed that an increase at this point will see them hit that magical 70% mark.
- I think Doc Rivers and the Celtics are content to let LeBron, Wade, and Bosh take such a high percentage of shots. The quality of the shots they are getting will be the key to Boston’s defense. If they can force them to become jump shooters than the Celtics should be able to win this series because they all think they are better jump shooters than they truly are.
- The LeBron/Wade dynamic should be interesting to watch in this series. LeBron has been bounced out twice by the Celtics in the last three years. He sees the Celtics as the hurdle he needs to clear much like Michael Jordan knew the Pistons were his obstacle to a championship in the late 80s and early 90s. Wade also struggled a great deal during the regular season against Boston. They both could be pressing some in this series and watching how they share the ball when they both feel they have a lot to prove against this team should be intriguing.
- If, and it is a big if, Shaq plays in this series I think he needs to come off of the bench. He has only played 5 minutes since February and the bench struggled offensively against the Knicks. I think he could open up a lot of things for Big Baby, Jeff Green, and Delonte West. I also think the starters have gotten into a rhythm with Jermaine O’Neal and that they shouldn’t risk shuffling things around in their biggest series of the season. I think JO meshes well with their team defense. His numbers weren’t great but he altered a lot of shots in the Knicks series and he was a huge factor in their Game 1 win. Shaq can still log minutes with the starters but I think offensively and defensively it makes sense for him to come off the bench.
- The Heat have no answer for Rondo if he plays like he did against the Knicks. They do not have anyone that can check him at the point guard spot and if they shuffle Wade or LeBron onto him then Pierce or Allen will have a mismatch. He is going to see defenses sag off him even as his jumper improves but at this point I don’t know that he cares. If he has a running start and they pick him up below the foul line he knows he can either get to the rim or dish it off without a lot of stress. As long as he continues his stellar play the Celtics should be in good shape.
- Ray Allen is my pick for Celtic most likely to go off in this series, followed closely by Kevin Garnett. Pierce has struggled to find his offense for long stretches in his previous two series against James. Wade seems to hate covering Allen though. He gets lazy running through screens at times and also will double off of Allen leaving him wide open looks. The Celtics’ screen setting improved a lot in the first round and if that continues Ray should be able to find a lot of space against Miami. Garnett historically has played well against Bosh at both ends of the floor and is playing at a high level right now.
- I predict the Celtics to win this series in six games. If they are able to contain LeBron, Wade, and Bosh to some degree the Heat do not have enough around them to pick up the slack, especially if Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem don’t play. The other key is team rebounding. James and Wade were very active on the glass against the 76er’s and Rondo, Allen, and Pierce need to make sure they are putting bodies on them when shots go up. This may be the Celtics last run but I can’t see them allowing the Heat to send them home. They have wanted this series since the words “South Beach” left LeBron’s mouth last July and I don’t see them backing down now.
Follow the blog on Twitter: @TheSLReport
Email at: thesidelinereport@gmail.com
No comments:
Post a Comment