Football Friday Picks

I apologize, but there has been a lot going on lately so today is just going to be picks for the weekend.  Hope everyone has a good weekend!

Predictions (Home Teams in CAPS)
NCAA
ILLINOIS (+15) over Wisconsin
Virginia (+17) over FLORIDA STATE
Nebraska (+3.5) over MICHIGAN
Clemson (-8) over NC STATE
Penn State (+7) over OHIO STATE
ARKANSAS (-14) over MISSISSIPPI STATE
BAYLOR (+16) over Oklahoma
OREGON (-15) over Southern Cal
STANFORD (-18.5) over California
Boise State (-19) over SAN DIEGO STATE


Last Week: 5-5
Season: 53-53-4


NFL
FALCONS (-6) over Titans
Bills (+2) over DOLPHINS
Bengals (+7) over RAVENS
BROWNS (-1) over Jaguars
VIKINGS (+1) over Raiders
LIONS (-7) over Panthers
PACKERS (-14) over Bucs
Cowboys (-7.5) over SKINS
NINERS (-9.5) over Cardinals
Seahawks (+3) over RAMS
BEARS (-3.5) over Chargers
GIANTS (-4) over Eagles
PATRIOTS (-15) over Chiefs


Last Week: 6-9
Season: 71-66-8

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Against All Odds Patriots Deliver Statement

Just when it looked like the AFC East might be wide open, the Patriots made an emphatic statement that they still have a stranglehold on the division.  The Pats, Jets, and Bills entered the day with identical 5-3 records but Buffalo's blowout loss in Dallas combined with the Patriots' 37-16 road win over the Jets has New England sitting pretty.  They hold what is basically a two game lead over the Jets (1 game in the standings plus the head to head tie breaker), while Buffalo looks to be fading.

The Patriots find themselves in this position after a return to the "Patriot Way" at Met Life Stadium.

With injuries and doubters piling up the Patriots got a total team effort and ran away from New York in the second half.

Defensively they were forced to play, among others, Sterling Moore (first career start), Jeff Tarpinian (first career start), Antwaun Molden, Phillip Adams, Ross Ventrone, and Julian Edelman.

Carter had a lot of reason to jump for joy

With the pressure on they had some players step up and make big contributions.  Rob Ninkovich had two interceptions, including a fourth quarter pick-6 that iced the game for them.  Andre Carter set a franchise record with 4.5 sacks and wreaked havoc in the Jets' backfield.

Carter and company up front helped to take some pressure off of the banged up secondary by pressuring Sanchez without blitzing.  Carter and Mark Anderson did an excellent job of winning one on one battles in the passing game and forced Sanchez to move off the spot even when they didn't get sacks.

The offense also helped with their most efficient performance in recent weeks.  They picked on Eric Smith and Donald Strickland in coverage, mostly with Rob Gronkowski, who lit up the Jets to the tune of 113 yards receiving and 2 touchdowns.  Tom Brady ran the offense beautifully, especially in the no huddle.

The drive of the game came after the Jets made it a one possession game early in the fourth quarter.  A Mark Sanchez to Plaxico Burress touchdown cut New England's lead to 23-16 and a three and out would have energized the Jets and their fans.  Instead Brady led a 13 play, 84 yard drive that lasted almost 7 minutes and ended with a Deion Branch 8 yard touchdown  reception.  Brady worked mostly out of the no huddle and played the Jets like a fiddle.  He called running plays when New York had more defensive backs in the game, passing plays when they brought in their "heavy" personnel, and caught the Jets out of position several times with the quick tempo.  That drive effectively ended the game, making it a two possession game with just over 8 minutes to play.

Now the Patriots look to be sitting pretty.  They have the advantage over the Jets and have the easiest remaining schedule in the AFC.  A 13-3 record and home field is definitely not out of the question.  Both Baltimore and Pittsburgh have looked schizophrenic this season,  while Houston is an unproven team.

The top of the conference is still very much wide open.  The top of the AFC East?  Not so much.  The Patriots made a statement on national TV that they are still very much a factor in the AFC and that the East is still theirs to lose, no matter who they put out on the field.

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Game of the Century

Football Friday, Volume 9 (Part 1)

By Brian Smith

(Editor's note: Last week LSU and Alabama played in what many dubbed the "Game of the Century."  I imagine it must have been an unbelievable atmosphere to attend a game.  Two nights earlier the polar opposite of that game occurred in Chestnut Hill.  It also marked Brian "Poopa" Smith's first time attending a college football game.)

Raucous.  Loud.  Crazy.  These are things one would expect when attending a college football game.  I, for one, had never had the pleasure of attending a college football game before.  When told I had a chance to attend the BC-Florida State game on November 3^rd, I jumped at the opportunity.  I mean, who wouldn’t? My first college football experience would be Boston College vs Florida State, two ACC foes going head to head in a game that was slated to be nationally televised on ESPN on a Thursday night.  Needless to say, my expectations were through the roof for this experience. 

But first, a little bit of a backstory.  When it comes to sporting events, I manage to get myself insanely hyped up for them.  Just ask the writer of The SLReport about Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals in 2010 between the Cavs and the Celtics.  It’s damn near impossible to temper my expectations for a sporting event.  Thus, my head was in the clouds when it came to this game.  In August, dancing around in my head, were thoughts of Florida State coming into this game undefeated.  Florida State is also one of my most hated teams when it comes to sports.  I dreamed of BC pulling off the upset and being able to storm the field and tear down the goal posts!!(Editor’s note: I didn’t have the heart to tell Poopa that stadiums now break down the goal posts to prevent fans from doing such a thing)  I was ready to go!!  But fast forward a few months into the season and Florida State struggled to meet high expectations out of the gate and came into the game with a 5-3 record.  Even worse, BC was making their way through a rough season and stumbled into this game with their record at 2-6.  My hopes of storming the field were dashed.  But nevertheless, with both teams bowl streaks on the line, there was much to play for and I was still genuinely ready to take in my first college football experience.  And with that, begins the photo essay…

To get to a football game at Chestnut Hill, you have to park in Needham and you get bused over to the Heights for the game.  Being told the bus ride would only take 15-20 minutes, I literally couldn’t sit still when I got on the bus.  45 minutes later and stuck in traffic, I was wondering if fans going to the Iron Bowl or any big time college football game had to suffer through the same fate.  I chalked it up to the fact that this was probably standard operating procedure for a BC game with the stadium having pretty much no parking and continued on my way. 

 

When we finally got off the bus and took a short walk to the stadium, I was greeted by the façade of Alumni Stadium.  I got chills, as my expectations were still pretty high for this game regardless of the records.  Well, it was that or the fact that it was rather cold out that night and I had managed to not dress properly for the game.  Either way, I didn’t realize how quickly it would take for disappointment to wash over me.

TAILGATING!!  Every college football game has that!!  I soaked up the atmosphere and felt like I was a part of something special.  I really felt as if we were in store for something epic that night.  In hindsight, that was a really stupid thought.

 

This is the scene I was greeted with when we reached our seats in the North end zone.  Oh, and I’d like to point out that this was less than half an hour before kickoff.  Where’s the crazy student section?  Where are the people jumping up and down and chanting and yelling?  Where the hell is everyone!?!  Uhhhhh, this is nothing I like I had imagined it to be….uh-oh.  And most possibly the worst thing I had heard during this time was the BC marching band playing the FLORIDA STATE fight song!!  Would you hear Oregon’s marching band playing “Hail to Old OSU” in a Civil War game at Autzen??  I think not!  This was pretty much a foreboding as to how the rest of the night was going to go.

 

I guess this is a little bit better now?  My two friends and I (Editor’s note: Apparently he couldn’t mention us by name; I was there along with MATT SILBERMAN!!! ) managed to get ourselves pumped up for the kickoff and off we went.  I’d like to point out that the three of us had about 6 rows to ourselves at this point and we also seemed to be amongst a sizable Florida State contingency.  Again, not quite what I was expecting. 

One of the aforementioned Florida State fans.  Have I mentioned how much I HATE Florida State? 

I wish I could tell you when this picture was taken but I honestly have no clue.  It was 28-0 at halftime.  The first six drives that BC had ended with a fumble and 5 punts.  BC was getting blown out.  That crazy student section that I was expecting… Yeah, well that was more than halfway empty by the end of the halftime.  The pretzel that I bought (Editor's note: I bought him that pretzel) was colder than the soda that I got to drink with it.  The most exciting thing I saw….well, at least I think I saw it; it could have just been the boredom kicking in, was when the Florida State kicker was warming up at halftime, and I’ll carry this to my grave, and kicked two balls in one attempt from the 50 yard line.  One ended up going through the uprights and the other fell just short.  I was told there was no way in hell that I saw what I thought I saw.  I don’t know, maybe I was just going delirious at this point (Editor's note: this absolutely 100% did not happen). 

This picture pretty much sums up the second half of the game (Editor's note: that is me in that picture, again apparently Poopa couldn't mention me).  Almost no crowd noise it felt like, and to make matters worse, it was becoming a very slow moving football game.  Most of our excitement was spent on wondering if we were going to be the last two people in our section, we were….by about the 10 minute mark of the fourth quarter.  Thank God for smartphones and Facebook.  I wonder if Mark Zuckerberg created Facebook for nights like this.

A Florida State fan in a Christian Ponder Vikings jersey, enough said.

This picture pretty much sums up the night as a whole: final score 38-7.  I think the most excited the crowd got this whole game is when BC’s backup QB, Josh Bornder came in and did his best Tim Tebow impression.  I got to walk out of the stadium getting to listen to the whole Florida State tomahawk chop/chant….it sucked.   Don’t get me wrong, I had a fun time and everything being at the game with friends, but this was NOTHING like I had expected.  I guess I was expecting too much from a school in the Northeast that feels out of place in a big conference like the ACC.  But I guess this serves as a lesson as to what college football is like in the Northeast.  I think high school football games in Texas contained more excitement than Alumni Stadium that night.  Blame it on the crowd, or the bad showing by BC, blame it on whatever you want, but I imagine this is nothing what football down south is like.  Take this past weekend’s SEC matchup between LSU and Alabama as an example.  Now that’s what a college football experience is all about.  This was an experience for sure, and I would definitely do it again, but next time, my expectations will definitely have to be tempered. 

(Editor's note: Thanks to Poopa for his contribution.  I am hoping to get him more involved with the blog moving forward.)

Click here for Part 2 of Football Friday including my picks.

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NFL Flexing Down the Stretch

Click Here for Part 1 of Football Friday

Football Friday, Volume 9 (Part 2)
By Mark Lenehan

First a quick note.  I am passing on writing about college football this week.  The scandal at Penn State is obviously the biggest story of the week and it has been covered and talked about everywhere.  I don't feel like I could add anything to the conversation that hadn't already been said so I am just going to abstain.  My heart goes out to all the victims, as it seems that they have been forgotten during the uproar over Joe Paterno.  Take a second and just remember who the real victims are in all of this.

So we will instead take a look at the NFL this week...

We have entered the point in the NFL season where the term "flex-scheduling" comes into play.  It is now possible for games that were scheduled to be in prime time on Sunday night to be moved to a daytime start and vice versa.

Already the NFL has announced that the New England Patriots home game against the Indianapolis Colts on December 4th has been "flexed" out of primetime and shifted to a 1 PM kickoff.

So let's take a look at the schedule for the rest of the season and see which games will likely remain in primetime and which games could be shifted.

(Note: I believe that the Week 11 Eagles at Giants game is already locked in so we will begin with Week 12.)

Week 12:
Scheduled Game: Pittsburgh at Kansas City
Outlook: I would say this game is likely to be flexed to an earlier kickoff.  The Chiefs, a playoff team last season, have struggled to meet expectations this season.  They also play in primetime the week before this game (at New England on Monday Night Football). 
Candidates to be flexed: Buffalo at NY Jets or Chicago at Oakland; Buffalo and the Jets are currently tied atop the AFC East, while Oakland leads the AFC West and Chicago is in the thick of the NFC playoff race.

Week 13:
Scheduled Game: Indianapolis at New England (already flexed out)
Candidates to be flexed: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Detroit at New Orleans, or Green Bay at NY Giants; Cincy and Pittsburgh could be battling for first in the AFC North (and Pittsburgh could potentially lose a primetime game the previous week), Detroit and New Orleans are both potential playoff teams in the NFC, as are the Giants and Packers (who could still be chasing an undefeated season).

Week 14:
Scheduled Game: NY Giants at Dallas
Outlook: This game will be staying where it is as these two teams are currently the top 2 teams in the NFC East.  Also it is a storied rivalry in the NFL with two large fan bases.

Week 15:
Scheduled Game: Baltimore at San Diego
Outlook: I would tend to think that this game is safe in prime time.  I can't see San Diego falling out of the race in the AFC West and Baltimore could be fighting for home field in the AFC.  NBC won't pass on a possible AFC playoff preview.

Week 16:
This is Christmas weekend.  Most games that week are scheduled to be played on Saturday though there is a Sunday night game on Christmas night (Chicago at Green Bay).  That is a game that would likely stay in primetime regardless but I would also assume that it cannot be moved since it would involve switching the day of a game, not just the kickoff time.

Week 17:
Scheduled game: None
Candidates to be flexed: Buffalo at New England, Detroit at Green Bay, Baltimore at Cincinnati, Tennessee at Houston, San Diego at Oakland; gotta love the divisional heavy schedule in week 17.  All of the above games could potentially decide division races.

On to the picks...

Predictions (Home Teams in CAPS)
NCAA
Ohio State (-7.5) over PURDUE
Wake Forest (+17) over CLEMSON
Oklahoma State (-18) over TEXAS TECH
Florida (+3.5) over SOUTH CAROLINA
Michigan (-1) over ILLINOIS
KANSAS STATE (+5) over Texas A&M
BOISE STATE (-16) over Texas Christian
Auburn (+13) over GEORGIA
ARKANSAS (-15) over Tennessee
STANFORD (-3.5) over Oregon

Last Week: 6-4
Season: 48-48-4

NFL
BENGALS (+3) over Steelers
Broncos (+3.5) over CHIEFS
Jaguars (-3) over COLTS
COWBOYS (-5.5) over Bills
BUCS (+3.5) over Texans
PANTHERS (-3.5) over Titans
Redskins (+4) over DOLPHINS
Saints (-1) over FALCONS
BROWNS (-3) over Rams
EAGLES (-13.5) over Cardinals
Ravens (-7) over SEAHAWKS
Lions (+3) over BEARS
Giants (+3.5) over NINERS
Patriots (+1) over JETS
PACKERS (-14) over Vikings

Last Week: 7-7
Season: 65-57-8

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In a Grinder, It Was Alabama That Got Too Cute

#1 vs #2 lived up to the hype.

The LSU Tigers emerged from Bryant Denny Stadium last night victorious in overtime over the Alabama Crimson Tide 9-6.  The win was the fourth road victory over a ranked opponent for the Tigers in 2011.  It has also put the Tigers in the driver's seat for a spot in the National Championship game in New Orleans.

There are a number of things than can, and will, be discussed and over analyzed over the next several days (keeping Marquis Maze in the game for the punt return with a bum ankle, the Jefferson/Lee management by Miles, bringing Shelley in for the third long field goal attempt, etc.) but one thing stands out over everything in my eyes.

LSU, and more specifically head coach Les Miles, had the reputation for gimmicks and crazy plays but it was Alabama that tried to get cute in this game and it cost them.

This Bama fan could not believe the Tide's late game play calling

The first instance came on Alabama's first possession of the fourth quarter after LSU had tied the game at 6 on a Drew Alleman 30 yard field goal.  The Tide responded by quickly moving 47 yards in 5 plays down to the LSU 28 yard line.  Trent Richardson had just ripped off a 24 yard run and seemed to be getting into a rhythm.  On first down Alabama called for Maze to throw a pass out of their wildcat formation.  Alabama caught LSU on a blown coverage but an underthrown ball combined with an extremely athletic play by Eric Reid led to an interception for the Tigers instead of a touchdown for Bama.

The game eventually went to overtime where Alabama got the ball first.  On first down the Tide called for a shovel pass from A.J. McCarron to Richardson that fell incomplete.  It also would have been completely snuffed out even if it had been completed because LSU held their ground along the defensive front.  The Tide were then forced into a second and fifteen situation following a substitution infraction.  They tried to hit Richardson on a vertical pass down the sideline but the play was covered well and the ball was thrown too far outside.  On third down they attempted to throw downfield again rather than get some yardage back for a more manageable field goal attempt.  McCarron took an awful sack on the play and the Tide were forced to attempt a 52 yard field goal that was no good.

Mr. Conservative (for one night at least)

On the other side of the field the Tigers, known for trickery of their own, stayed true to what they had done all night.  They remained committed to the run and to quarterback Jordan Jefferson, who played the majority of the game and took all of the snaps after Jarrett Lee's second interception.  Their were no fake punts or gutsy fourth down play calls.  Instead LSU recognized how the game was going and stuck to the script.

In the end it won them the game and put them one step closer to the BCS title game in New Orleans.  The team that has thrived in hostile environments all season may end up reaping the benefits with a hometown crowd in January.

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