Bruins KO Montreal the Right Way

Now THAT was a statement game Bruins fans.  For all the excitement that the brawl-filled blood bath of February 9 brought to the city, that game did not tell us anything we did not know.  Who among Bruins fans did not already know that the Bruins could beat up the Canadiens in a physical, fighting game?  Truth be told that game should have been more of a red flag to the Bruins.  Despite winning that night Tim Thomas continued to struggle against the Habs, allowing 6 goals, and the Canadiens power play connected for 4 goals on 8 opportunities.  The Bruins may have played "their game" that night but by no means did they dominate Montreal that evening.

Last night the Bruins answered every question they had when it came to Montreal.  The electricity in the building last night could only be compared to a playoff game and the Bruins were able to feed off of it right away.  Johnny Boychuk immediately put Montreal on its heels by scoring 61 seconds into the game.  The momentum continued as the Bruins scored twice more and took a 3-0 lead into the first intermission.

The first and third periods were obviously the highlights of the evening, but truthfully it was the second period that they put the game away.  They did not allow Montreal any opportunities to get back into the game.  Montreal did not have a single power play opportunity in the period and only had 5 shots on goal.  The Bruins continued to control play on the ice and maintained their advantage going into the third.    And that was the theme of the night.  The Bruins played a SMART game.  Montreal only had 1 power play through the first 2 periods when the game was still relatively in doubt.  They finished with 5 power plays on the evening, but no conversions and even gave up a shorthanded (5 on 3) goal to Gregory Campbell.

The other big issue the Bruins had going into last night, and staring at a potential playoff matchup next month, was Tim Thomas's struggles against Montreal this season.  He more than answered the bell last night, stopping all 24 shots he faced and making several big saves.  Before last night Thomas was 1-2-0 against Montreal with 13 goals allowed on 116 shots (a save percentage of only 89%).  Last night he reminded everyone that he is a Vezina candidate and alleved a lot of concerns should Montreal be back next month, since Thomas clearly is the Bruins goalie come playoff-time.

All in all it was a very satisfying evening at the Garden last night.  With 2 games in hand and a 5 point lead, the Bruins realistically locked up the division last night and most likely will end up in the third seed, though the second is still within reach.  They now must feel much more confident about a potential Montreal playoff series than they did even 24 hours ago.  Their power play has looked better the last 2 games (only 1 goal last night on 6 chances but they looked crisper and generated a number of chances).  Tim Thomas has seemingly gotten out of his slump with only 1 goal allowed in his last 2 starts.  Most importantly they showed they can line up and skate with Montreal and beat them in a hockey game, that they do not need to rely on brawling to beat them.  This Bruins season has been a rollercoaster ride to this point, with many peaks and valleys, but they are seeningly peaking at the right time as they head into what everyone hopes is an extended playoff run.

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MADNESS

For those of you who wait until the last day before the NCAA tournament begins (because honestly the First Four? Really? Thursday and Friday are still the first rounds, but I digress...) to fill out your brackets I have decided to make some tourney predictions to aid you in your bracketology.

How can I help you ask?  Well I have never won a bracket pool in my life, I believe one time I came in second, so logic says that if you read this and go against my predictions you will probably do well for yourself.  I filled out my bracket Tuesday without much thought and only plan on doing the ESPN Tourney Challenge this year.  Without further ado...

Mormons Beware
I've decided to piss off the Kimmerites right away.  My first bold prediction for the 2011 NCAA Tournament is that BYU will be upset by #14 seed Wofford in the "second" round.  Ever since Brandon Davies scared basketball players across the land into thinking sex is illegal BYU has not been the same team.  Davies was their top rebounder and they also don't seem to have the same swagger they had earlier in the year.  I think their Jimmer dependence will come back to haunt them and cause the first major bracket shakeup of the year.  (Sorry Utah, do I have to rescind my Jimmer Fan Club membership now?)

I Hate the Big 10 But...
I think 3 teams from the league will make the Sweet 16 (Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin) and one will make the Elite 8 (the Badgers).  To be fair my Big 10 hatred is rooted in one game: 2000 Final Four, Michigan State 53 Wisconsin 41.  In watching some Big 10 games this year it does seem like they are more willing to actually put the ball in the hoop in 2011 and not just tackle each other to keep football around the midwest all year round, but I always fear a reversion back to their old ways.  So I typically keep my Final Four Big 10 free.

An Old Flame
My love affair with Gonzaga goes back about as far as my disdain for the Big 10, and it is all rooted in their cinderella run to the Regional Finals in 1999 (can't believe it was that long ago, I had to look it up).  A 10 seed that year they beat Minnesota, Stanford, and Florida, before UConn decided to crush their Final Four dreams in the Elite 8 (George Mason would avenge them in 2006).  Two years later they made a run to the Sweet 16 as a 12 seed and I was in love.  If that still wasn't enough in 2003 they took top seeded Arizona to double overtime in the second round in an epic game falling 96-95.  Because of all that I would irrationally pick Gonzaga to go deep every year and it hasn't really paid off.  So Gonzaga it's over between us, I have you losing in the first round this year (Reverse Jinx?!?!  I'll never tell).

I See Two Cakewalks to the Final Four...
for UConn and Florida, so they will probably be out by the end of the first weekend.  UConn seems to be the hottest team in the country coming into the tournament, having won 5 games in 5 days to win the Big East Tournament.  Their toughest potential game would seem to be Duke, but I have the Blue Devils going home in the Sweet 16 at the hands of Texas.  Across the Bracket I have Florida matching up in the second round with Michigan State, which would have been a big game 7 years ago, followed by dates with St. John's and Wisconsin.  I think St. John's will be the toughest game, but most of their magic this season seems to have occurred in MSG and I see them bowing out on Florida's road to Houston.

Top Seed Free Zone
I don't see any of the #1 seeds playing Monday night April 4 for the National Championship.  In fact I only see Kansas making the Final Four, but I think Florida will be able to take them down.  On the other side I see North Carolina coming out of the East and beating UConn in the Final Four.  That leaves 2 seeds UNC and Florida playing for the Championship, where I think Harrison Barnes and the Tar Heels will be too much for the Gators.

So there you have it some 2011 NCAA predictions to go against this year when filling out your own brackets.  And if that's not enough, below you will find my complete round by round predictions so when one miraculously comes true I can point to this and prove I did in fact call it.

East Region:
Third Round: Ohio State, Villanova, Clemson, Kentucky, Xavier, Syracuse, Washington, UNC
Sweet 16: Ohio State, Kentucky, Syracuse, UNC
Elite 8: Kentucky, UNC (UNC wins)

West Region:
Third Round: Duke, Tennessee, Arizona, Texas, Missouri, UConn, Penn State, San Diego St.
Sweet 16: Duke, Texas, UConn, Penn State
Elite 8: Texas, UConn (UConn wins)

Southwest Region:
Third Round: Kansas, UNLV, Vanderbilt, Louisville, Georgetown, Purdue, FSU, Notre Dame
Sweet 16: Kansas, Vandy, Georgetown, Notre Dame
Elite 8: Kansas, Notre Dame (Kansas wins)

Southeast Region:
Third Round: Pittsburgh, Butler, Utah State, Wisconsin, St. John's, Wofford, Michigan State, Florida
Sweet 16: Pitt, Wisconsin, St. John's, Florida
Elite 8: Wisconsin, Florida (Florida wins)

Final Four:
UNC vs Florida (UNC 74-67)

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The Heat's Too High on Miami's Big 3

After losing to the Knicks Sunday night, the Heat finally started to show some frustration that the “process” they are going through is not progressing as quickly as they had hoped, or planned.  The loss dropped them to 5-11 in games decided by 5 points or less.  They are winless against Boston and Chicago.  That is not what was expected by a franchise that held a free agent “championship” celebration last summer.  Everyone knew that the burden of winning an actual championship would rest on the shoulders of the “Big 3”, but stats, and history, say they are carrying too much of an offensive load to win a title this season.

Sunday, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh combined to take 50 of Miami’s 74 field goal attempts.  That works out to 67.57% of the team’s shots.  That is a large chunk of shots for only 3 players, but that was right around their average for the season (65.68%).  Now it is typical to expect that the 3 best players on a team are going to shoulder the majority of the offensive burden on any team, but no championship team in the last 8 years has had a percentage for their “Big 3” higher than 56% (Miami 2006).  Here are Miami’s numbers stacked up against the last 8 NBA champions:

Team	FGA	Top 3 FGA	T3 % FGA
MIA 11	77.5	50.9	65.68%
LAL 10	83.8	45.1	53.82%
LAL 09	85.1	43.8	51.47%
BOS 08	76.7	41.1	53.59%
SAS 07	77.2	39.7	51.42%
MIA 06	77.5	43.4	56.00%
SAS 05	78.7	40.3	51.21%
DET 04	77	40.5	52.60%
SAS 03	76.8	40.1	52.21%

The average for the 8 previous title teams’ top 3 players was 52.77% of the teams’ shots.

Furthermore the offensive expectations of a team’s best players typically rise in the post-season.  Each of the last 8 years the NBA champs saw an increase in the percentage of shots taken by their best players in the playoffs:

Team	FGA	Top 3 FGA	T3 % FGA	Change
LAL 10	81.2	46.5	57.27	3.45
LAL 09	80.5	44	54.66	3.19
BOS 08	75.1	43	57.26	3.67
SAS 07	76.8	46.6	60.68	9.26
MIA 06	72.4	44.2	61.05	5.05
SAS 05	76.5	46.8	61.18	9.97
DET 04	76.3	42.4	55.57	2.97
SAS 03	76.8	42.1	54.82	2.61

The teams saw the percentage of FGA by their top players increase to an average of 57.81% in the playoffs, about a 5% increase over the regular season.  If that trend were to continue for the Heat this season, James, Wade, and Bosh would be taking over 70% of their team’s shots come playoff time.

The expectation for this team was that they would be harder to defend with three marquee players on the floor together.  Instead they have struggled in the half court for much of the season and have had scoring lulls in end of quarter situations.  The latter was highlighted Sunday night when the Knicks ended the first half on a 16-0 run and the game on a 13-2 run.  LeBron, Wade, and Bosh are all excellent individual offensive players, but the way they are dominating the shots for Miami, they are playing 3 on 5 offensively at times because other teams know they don’t have to worry about Joel Anthony, Erick Dampier, Mario Chalmers, or whoever is on the floor with the “Big 3”, especially in crunch time. 

The Heat have suffered these struggles in the regular season when they are seeing different teams every night and game planning is much less in depth.  Things will get much more interesting this spring when teams have the ability to lock in and focus on only them in a 7 game series.  The “Big 3” have embraced the villain role and welcomed the “Heat” that has come along with it, but come playoff time it may prove to be too hot for them.

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